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diff --git a/cui b/cui
new file mode 100755
index 0000000..cc6b1d1
--- /dev/null
+++ b/cui
@@ -0,0 +1 @@
+pyuic mainwindow.ui -o mainwindow.py
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diff --git a/icons/Entourage.png b/icons/Entourage.png
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diff --git a/icons/iSync.png b/icons/iSync.png
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diff --git a/icons/timg.jpeg b/icons/timg.jpeg
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Binary files /dev/null and b/icons/v4.png differ
diff --git a/kmanapp.pyproject.user b/kmanapp.pyproject.user
new file mode 100644
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+ PythonEditor.RunConfiguration./Users/mark/kman/kmanapp.py
+ /Users/mark/kman/kmanapp.py
+ {db5d5c02-d4ed-4418-b2a9-60defdb75f1d}
+ /Users/mark/kman/kmanapp.py
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diff --git a/mainwindow.py b/mainwindow.py
index bf61c5d..e66b192 100644
--- a/mainwindow.py
+++ b/mainwindow.py
@@ -20,15 +20,27 @@ class Ui_MainWindow(object):
def setupUi(self, MainWindow):
if not MainWindow.objectName():
MainWindow.setObjectName(u"MainWindow")
- MainWindow.resize(800, 600)
+ MainWindow.resize(665, 385)
self.actionimport = QAction(MainWindow)
self.actionimport.setObjectName(u"actionimport")
- icon = QIcon(QIcon.fromTheme(u"Ab6.png"))
+ icon = QIcon()
+ iconThemeName = u"Ab6.png"
+ if QIcon.hasThemeIcon(iconThemeName):
+ icon = QIcon.fromTheme(iconThemeName)
+ else:
+ icon.addFile(u".", QSize(), QIcon.Normal, QIcon.Off)
+
self.actionimport.setIcon(icon)
self.actionimport_2 = QAction(MainWindow)
self.actionimport_2.setObjectName(u"actionimport_2")
+ icon1 = QIcon()
+ icon1.addFile(u"icons/Ab6.png", QSize(), QIcon.Normal, QIcon.Off)
+ self.actionimport_2.setIcon(icon1)
self.actionimport_3 = QAction(MainWindow)
self.actionimport_3.setObjectName(u"actionimport_3")
+ icon2 = QIcon()
+ icon2.addFile(u"icons/Ab10.png", QSize(), QIcon.Normal, QIcon.Off)
+ self.actionimport_3.setIcon(icon2)
self.centralwidget = QWidget(MainWindow)
self.centralwidget.setObjectName(u"centralwidget")
MainWindow.setCentralWidget(self.centralwidget)
@@ -40,7 +52,7 @@ class Ui_MainWindow(object):
MainWindow.addToolBar(Qt.TopToolBarArea, self.toolBar)
self.menuBar = QMenuBar(MainWindow)
self.menuBar.setObjectName(u"menuBar")
- self.menuBar.setGeometry(QRect(0, 0, 800, 22))
+ self.menuBar.setGeometry(QRect(0, 0, 665, 22))
self.menuImport = QMenu(self.menuBar)
self.menuImport.setObjectName(u"menuImport")
MainWindow.setMenuBar(self.menuBar)
diff --git a/mainwindow.ui b/mainwindow.ui
index 8117abe..053f869 100644
--- a/mainwindow.ui
+++ b/mainwindow.ui
@@ -6,8 +6,8 @@
0
0
- 800
- 600
+ 665
+ 385
@@ -15,6 +15,16 @@
+
toolBar
@@ -25,50 +35,116 @@
false
-
-
-
+
+
+
-
-
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-
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+ icons/Ab9.pngicons/Ab9.png
- Import
+ importlocal
+
+
+ import clipping file from local clipping file
+
+
+
+
+
+ icons/Ab5.pngicons/Ab5.png
+
+
+ importkindle
import clipping file from kindle
-
- Meta+I
+
+
+
+
+ icons/conf.pngicons/conf.png
+
+
+ config
+
+
+ configuration
-
+
+
+
+ icons/iSync.pngicons/iSync.png
+
- import
+ flush
+
+
+ flush import file
-
+
+
+
+ icons/Ar18.pngicons/Ar18.png
+
- import
+ words
+
+
+ words
+
+
+
+
+
+ icons/81.pngicons/81.png
+
+
+ statistic
+
+
+ statistics reading habbit
+
+
+
+
+
+ icons/direction.pngicons/direction.png
+
+
+ homepage
+
+
+ redirect to my homepage
+
+
+
+
+
+ icons/60.pngicons/60.png
+
+
+ about
+
+
+ open about dialog
+
+
+
+
+
+ icons/Pixadex.pngicons/Pixadex.png
+
+
+ search
+
+
+ search note
diff --git a/searchauthor.md b/searchauthor.md
deleted file mode 100644
index e62f08e..0000000
--- a/searchauthor.md
+++ /dev/null
@@ -1,72 +0,0 @@
-TYPE|BOOKNAME|AUTHOR|MARKTIME|CONTENT
---|--|--|--|--
-HL|金融的本质：伯南克四讲美联储(看一个风云人物的金融思考) |巴曙松|2020/5/10 22:44:26|伯南克于1953年出生在美国佐治亚州，他在大学入学考试中，以十分优秀的成绩被哈佛大学录取。1975年，他以经济学系最优等成绩从哈佛毕业，随后进入麻省理工学院深造，并于1979年获得博士学位。之后伯南克投身教职，在斯坦福大学任教6年（1979~1985年），又于1985~2002年间在普林斯顿大学担任经济和政治事务教授，还曾担任该校经济系主任。
-HL|金融的本质：伯南克四讲美联储(看一个风云人物的金融思考) |巴曙松|2020/5/10 22:57:36|他认为总需求下降是“大萧条”爆发的决定因素，而总需求下降由货币因素和金融因素两方面导致：货币因素是指当时存在缺陷和管理不善的金本位制所带来的全球性的货币供给紧缩；金融因素则是指银行业恐慌和银行倒闭潮堵塞了正常的信贷流动渠道，从而加剧了经济崩溃。
-HL|金融的本质：伯南克四讲美联储(看一个风云人物的金融思考) |巴曙松|2020/5/10 23:01:15|1929年金融危机爆发，美联储迎来了第一次重大挑战。不幸的是，那次危机最终还是演变成了“大萧条”。除了经济历史和纪录片中那些关于“大萧条”的画面，一系列数据也揭示了当时美国的惨状：近万家银行倒闭，股指下跌达85%，GDP（国内生产总值）下跌近1/3，物价下跌近20%，失业率逼近25%。
-HL|金融的本质：伯南克四讲美联储(看一个风云人物的金融思考) |巴曙松|2020/5/10 23:02:12|伯南克指出美联储有两大使命：其一是维持金融稳定，即保证金融体系正常运转，缓解甚至阻止金融危机或金融恐慌；其二是维持经济稳定，保持经济稳定增长，并维持低通胀。美联储可以分别运用最后贷款人工具和货币政策工具来实现上述两大使命。
-HL|金融的本质：伯南克四讲美联储(看一个风云人物的金融思考) |巴曙松|2020/5/10 23:03:32|美联储在20世纪50年代实施了“逆风向”的货币政策，迎来了经济的繁荣发展。从60年代中期开始，因信奉通胀率和失业率之间的替代关系（即菲利普斯曲线），美联储的货币政策开始转向过度宽松，为通货膨胀埋下了隐患
-HL|金融的本质：伯南克四讲美联储(看一个风云人物的金融思考) |巴曙松|2020/5/10 23:06:27|面对货币市场基金遭遇“挤兑”、商业票据市场面临冲击、市场流动性冻结等局面，美联储秉承“白芝浩原则”，通过贴现窗口迅速向金融体系注入大量资金。美联储还对贝尔斯登、美国国际集团和“两房”等大型金融机构实施救助，以避免其倒闭带来恐慌性蔓延。
-HL|金融的本质：伯南克四讲美联储(看一个风云人物的金融思考) |巴曙松|2020/5/10 23:07:41|美联储积极利用货币政策工具来追求经济稳定。美联储最先启用传统货币政策，将联邦基金利率由2007年末的5.25%迅速降至2008年末的0~0.25%之间。至此，调控短期利率的传统货币政策已用尽，但经济仍在急剧衰退。于是，美联储又启动非传统货币政策——大规模资产购买计划（LSAPs），也就是量化宽松。第一轮和第二轮量化宽松分别于2009年3月和2010年11月开始，从而使美联储资产负债表膨胀了两万多亿美元。
-HL|金融的本质：伯南克四讲美联储(看一个风云人物的金融思考) |巴曙松|2020/5/11 8:10:50|要实现这两大职能，中央银行都有哪些工具可用呢？简单地说，主要有两套基本工具。稳定经济方面的工具主要是货币政策。例如，在通常情况下美联储可以通过公开市场买卖证券，来降低或提高短期利率。当经济增长过缓或通胀水平过低时，美联储可以通过降息来刺激经济发展。美联储的低利率会传导至其他各种利率，进而刺激房产购置、建筑施工和企业投资等。低利率会创造更多的需求、消费以及投资，从而拉动经济增长。同样，如果经济增长过热或通胀问题严重，那么央行常用的应对措施就是提高利率。提高隔夜拆借利率，也就是提高各银行向美联储借钱的成本，这个利率在美国被称为联邦基金利率（federal funds rate）。美联储提高利率将会系统性带动其他利率的上涨，这样就可以通过提高车贷、房贷及其他类型贷款的成本，或是提高生产资料的投资成本，来减轻经济过热的压力，从而抑制经济过快增长。货币政策是中央银行多年来试图让经济在增长和通胀两方面都保持稳定而使用的一个基本工具。 中央银行用来应对金融恐慌或金融危机的主要工具是流动性供给（the provision of liquidity）。大家对这项职能或许不那么熟悉。出于对金融稳定性的考虑，中央银行会向金融机构提供短期贷款。在金融恐慌或危机期间，向金融机构提供短期信贷能平息市场情绪，有利于维持这些金融机构的稳定性，从而有助于缓解甚至终结金融危机。央行的上述行为被称作“最后贷款人”（lender of last resort）工具。如果金融市场崩溃，金融机构又没有其他资金来源，那么中央银行就要随时准备做“最后贷款人”，通过提供流动性支持来帮助稳定金融系统。 大部分中央银行（包括美联储）还有第三个工具，即金融监管。中央银行通常扮演着监管银行体系的角色，通过评估银行投资组合的风险状况、确保银行运营规范等，来保持金融系统的健康。如果一个金融系统能保持健康发展并将其风险控制在合理范围内，那就从源头上降低了金融危机发生的可能性
-HL|金融的本质：伯南克四讲美联储(看一个风云人物的金融思考) |巴曙松|2020/5/11 13:06:02|因此通过接受金融机构的非流动性资产作为抵押而向其提供短期贷款，中央银行可以为金融系统注入资金，支付给储户和短期借款人，从而稳定局势，结束恐慌。
-HL|金融的本质：伯南克四讲美联储(看一个风云人物的金融思考) |巴曙松|2020/5/11 13:11:39|如果没有中央银行这个资金来源，没有最后贷款人，那么很多机构就不得不破产倒闭。如果它们不得不贱卖资产，其他银行会发现自己的资产也在贬值，这将会引发一些新的问题。
-HL|金融的本质：伯南克四讲美联储(看一个风云人物的金融思考) |巴曙松|2020/5/11 18:05:57|以金本位制对货币供给的影响为例，由于金本位制决定了货币供给，央行通过货币政策调控来稳定经济的作为空间就会受到限制。在金本位制下，当经济表现强劲的时候，货币供给就会增加并导致利率下跌，这与今天同样情况下中央银行的做法刚好相反。由于金本位制限制了货币供给，央行就不能灵活地调控利率：在经济不景气时期下调利率，在通胀时期提高利率。有人认为这是金本位制有利的一面，这样中央银行就无权自作主张了（对此人们有争议）。但这也的确会带来负面影响：相较于现代经济，在金本位制下，经济产出和通胀水平的波动性都更大。
-NT|金融的本质：伯南克四讲美联储(看一个风云人物的金融思考) |巴曙松|2020/5/11 18:06:05|???
-HL|金融的本质：伯南克四讲美联储(看一个风云人物的金融思考) |巴曙松|2020/5/11 21:36:36|举一个现代的例子。如今，中国将人民币与美元汇率绑定。当然近来这种联系的灵活性有所增强，然而很长时间以来，人民币与美元之间存在紧密联系。这意味着，如果美联储在美国经济不景气的时候通过降低利率来刺激美国经济，那么中国国内的货币政策最终也会放宽，因为不同国家的同一种货币或固定汇率下的两种货币，其利率必须是一样的。然而低利率也许并不适用于中国国情，结果中国可能会发生通货膨胀。这样就相当于中国被美国货币政策所“绑架”。所以，无论是有利还是不利的政策，都会通过固定汇率制，从一个国家传导至另一个国家，从而剥夺一国独立管理其本国货币政策的权利
-NT|金融的本质：伯南克四讲美联储(看一个风云人物的金融思考) |巴曙松|2020/5/11 21:36:48|???
-HL|金融的本质：伯南克四讲美联储(看一个风云人物的金融思考) |巴曙松|2020/5/11 21:43:19|他关于这项主张的演讲十分具有感染力，也很具有19世纪演说家的风采，他说：“你们不能将布满荆棘的王冠压向劳动者的额头，你们亦不能将人民钉死在黄金的十字架上。”他想表达的是，金本位制正在伤害那些勤劳正直的农民，他们竭尽全力去偿还银行贷款，却发现自己农产品的价格在不断下跌。
-HL|金融的本质：伯南克四讲美联储(看一个风云人物的金融思考) |巴曙松|2020/5/11 21:58:15|经济急剧收缩，“大萧条”持续了相当长的一段时间，从1929年直到1941年珍珠港被偷袭后美国卷入战争为止。
-HL|金融的本质：伯南克四讲美联储(看一个风云人物的金融思考) |巴曙松|2020/5/11 22:00:46|如果你是个曾在19世纪晚期生活就很困难的农民，试想一下1932年在你身上将发生什么。农作物价格下跌了一半甚至更多，而你仍然要为你的抵押贷款向银行偿还同样多的钱。
-HL|金融的本质：伯南克四讲美联储(看一个风云人物的金融思考) |巴曙松|2020/5/11 22:08:01|导致“大萧条”的一部分原因是认知层面的，即是理论认知的问题而非政策本身的问题。在20世纪30年代，清算主义理论（liquidationist theory）这种思考经济运行的方式一度得到众多拥护。这种理论认为美国经济在20年代过度繁荣：经济扩张过快，增长过多，信贷过度膨胀，股价过高等。因此，经济需要经历一段通货紧缩的时期，以使过去过度发展的部分被挤出去。该理论认为“大萧条”虽然是不幸的，但却是必要的。我们需要把20年代所积压的过度发展的那部分挤出去。美国总统赫伯特·胡佛的财政部长安德鲁·梅隆说过一段著名的话：“清算劳动力市场，清算股市，清算农场主，清算房地产市场。”这听起来很无情，但是他试图传达给我们的想法是，我们需要摆脱20年代的过度发展，使美国经济重新回到一个合理的健康状态中去。
-HL|金融的本质：伯南克四讲美联储(看一个风云人物的金融思考) |巴曙松|2020/5/11 22:11:04|为了维持金本位制，美联储提高了利率而不是降低利率，认为保持高利率有利于吸引来美投资同时防止资本外流。但对挽救美国实体经济而言，这却是错误的做法。1933年，富兰克林·罗斯福总统废除了金本位制，货币政策突然变得不再那么紧缩，经济在1933~1934年间出现了强有力的复苏
-HL|金融的本质：伯南克四讲美联储(看一个风云人物的金融思考) |巴曙松|2020/5/11 22:12:14|但在一定程度上，美联储的不积极作为，部分是因为其比较认同清算主义理论。该理论认为当时全美银行数量过多，银行信贷过度，只有让银行体系收缩才有利于经济健康发展。但很不幸的是，这并不是正确的处理方式
-HL|金融的本质：伯南克四讲美联储(看一个风云人物的金融思考) |巴曙松|2020/5/11 22:50:43|尽管罗斯福采取的许多措施并没有奏效，但在我看来，他有两项工作确实有效解决了那些由美联储所导致的问题。第一项就是于1934年建立了联邦存款保险公司。从那以后，即便银行倒闭，普通储户仍然可以拿回自己的钱，因此他们就没有动机再去银行挤兑了。事实上，存款保险制度建立后，每年的银行倒闭数量由数以千计逐渐下降到零。这的确是一项相当有效的政策。罗斯福做的另一件事就是废除了金本位制。废除金本位制后，他允许放松货币政策，扩张货币供给，这就结束了通货紧缩，使经济在1933~1934年间经历了一个短期的有力反弹
-HL|金融的本质：伯南克四讲美联储(看一个风云人物的金融思考) |巴曙松|2020/5/11 23:00:54|我认为倡导回归金本位制的另一个原因是它取缔了央行的自由裁量权，它不允许央行运用货币政策去应对繁荣或者萧条，同时金本位制的倡导者认为最好不要把这项灵活处理权赋予中央银行。
-HL|金融的本质：伯南克四讲美联储(看一个风云人物的金融思考) |巴曙松|2020/5/11 23:02:54|有证据表明，金本位制是导致“大萧条”如此严重、持续时间如此之长的主要原因。另外一个惊人的事实是，那些较早脱离金本位制并采取灵活性货币政策的国家，要比那些到最后仍在坚持金本位制的国家恢复得更快一些。
-HL|金融的本质：伯南克四讲美联储(看一个风云人物的金融思考) |巴曙松|2020/5/11 23:09:10|一是保持宏观经济稳定，即维持经济的平稳增长和低通胀。而保持宏观经济稳定的主要工具是货币政策。在正常年份里，美联储和其他央行利用公开市场操作——在市场上买卖有价证券等——来调节利率，从而创建一个更加稳定的宏观经济环境。 央行的第二大职能是维持金融稳定。各大中央银行集中精力确保金融系统运转正常，尽一切可能防止出现金融危机或金融恐慌，即便无法阻止，也尽力减轻其带来的影响。
-HL|金融的本质：伯南克四讲美联储(看一个风云人物的金融思考) |巴曙松|2020/5/12 7:46:12|美联储和美国财政部合作，利用自身管理利率的职能，使利率保持在低位，从而帮助美国政府以较低的成本来为“二战”筹资。这就是美联储在战争期间所扮演的角色。
-HL|金融的本质：伯南克四讲美联储(看一个风云人物的金融思考) |巴曙松|2020/5/12 8:04:49|为什么20世纪70年代的货币政策会宽松到让通货膨胀成为问题呢？比较专业的解释是：货币政策制定者变得过于乐观，认为经济过热并不会导致通货膨胀。一般来说，失业率可以维持在3%或4%的低水平。然而通过保持稍高的通货膨胀率，你将能够获得更高的就业水平。所以，在经济繁荣的20世纪50年代和60年代初期，美联储开始遵循这一做法。这个问题实际上是相当微妙的，当时的经济理论和实践指出，通货膨胀与就业之间存在一个固定的制衡关系，这意味着，如果我们可以让通货膨胀率略高于正常水平，就可以保持长时间的就业增加和失业减少。这种观点当时被许多经济学家所接受。
-HL|金融的本质：伯南克四讲美联储(看一个风云人物的金融思考) |巴曙松|2020/5/12 8:05:49|弗里德曼很有先见之明，试图通过货币政策来维持过低的失业率，最终会引发通货膨胀。
-HL|金融的本质：伯南克四讲美联储(看一个风云人物的金融思考) |巴曙松|2020/5/12 8:07:54|这里我们援引米尔顿·弗里德曼的另一个著名论述：“通货膨胀无论在何时何地都是一个货币现象。
-HL|金融的本质：伯南克四讲美联储(看一个风云人物的金融思考) |巴曙松|2020/5/12 8:10:11|在20世纪70年代初期很短的一段时间内，石油的价格几乎翻了两番，导致汽油价格飙升。人们蜂拥至加油站排队加油。当时出现了一个“奇偶定量供给系统”的概念。如果你的车牌尾号是偶数，你只能在星期二和星期四去加油；如果是奇数，你只能在周一和周三去。当时的问题非常严重，民众对高油价怨声载道（和今天的情况非常类似）
-HL|金融的本质：伯南克四讲美联储(看一个风云人物的金融思考) |巴曙松|2020/5/12 8:12:45|价格是经济的温控器，是经济赖以运行的机制。所以，管制工资和物价意味着整个经济体系存在短缺及其他各种问题。除此之外，正如弗里德曼所说，这项政策就像通过破坏温控器来调节一个过热的炉子
-HL|金融的本质：伯南克四讲美联储(看一个风云人物的金融思考) |巴曙松|2020/5/12 24:28:54|弗里德曼说过，通货膨胀和失业之间不存在永远的此消彼长：想永远通过保持稍高水平的通货膨胀来降低失业率是不可能的。这是事实
-HL|金融的本质：伯南克四讲美联储(看一个风云人物的金融思考) |巴曙松|2020/5/12 18:39:49|对于美国和其他国家而言，究竟是哪些漏洞导致房价暴涨暴跌并演变成严重的经济危机的？这些漏洞既存在于私人部门，也存在于公共部门。首先来看私人部门。许多人借债过多，杠杆过度。他们这样做很有可能是因为经济“大缓和”时期的影响。在经历了20年的经济繁荣和金融稳定后，人们过于自信，愿意举借更多的债务，这样做的后果就是，在盈利空间不大、资产价格又下跌的时候，就会出现资不抵债的情况。
-HL|金融的本质：伯南克四讲美联储(看一个风云人物的金融思考) |巴曙松|2020/5/12 21:25:33|一些经济学家提出了另一种可能的解释：20世纪90年代后期，一场非常严重的金融危机席卷了一些亚洲国家和其他新兴市场经济体。危机平息之后，许多新兴市场国家开始大量积累外汇储备，这意味着它们需要得到安全的美元资产，于是对包括住房抵押贷款在内的资产的需求激增。这种需求是来自国外的，因为一些国家决定获取更多美元资产来充当外汇储备。有趣的是，在整个国家所能找到的与房价上涨关系最紧密的就是资金流入，这些资金流入国内，用来购买其认为安全的住房抵押贷款和其他资产，时间恰好也是在1998年初左右。
-HL|金融的本质：伯南克四讲美联储(看一个风云人物的金融思考) |巴曙松|2020/5/12 21:39:05|我再说一遍，原因在于房价影响住房抵押贷款的方式会破坏金融体系的稳健性，造成恐慌，而恐慌情绪又会加剧金融体系的不稳定性。所以整个事件链条至关重要，并不仅仅是房价下降，而是整个链条。
-HL|金融的本质：伯南克四讲美联储(看一个风云人物的金融思考) |巴曙松|2020/5/12 21:47:09|如果美联储就其未来的行动方向交换了意见，并且向市场传达了信息，市场会将这些预期以利率的形式反映出来，对经济产生重大影响。所以披露也会减少不确定性，帮助货币政策在金融市场中发挥作用。
-HL|金融的本质：伯南克四讲美联储(看一个风云人物的金融思考) |巴曙松|2020/5/12 21:50:52|对于维持金融稳定，中央银行主要使用的工具是作为最后贷款人，为金融机构提供短期流动性和资金支持。几个世纪以来，各国的中央银行运用这一工具平息了数次金融恐慌。对于维持经济稳定，中央银行最重要的工具是货币政策，在正常时期，货币政策主要体现为短期利率的调整。
-HL|金融的本质：伯南克四讲美联储(看一个风云人物的金融思考) |巴曙松|2020/5/13 21:57:59|比如，一家从事住房抵押贷款业务的银行将住房抵押贷款卖给了“两房”，之后，“两房”会将它们购买的所有住房抵押贷款打包成住房抵押贷款支持证券（MBSs），然后卖给投资者。住房抵押贷款支持证券是成千上万份住房抵押贷款的组合，这一资产组合的过程就是“资产证券化”。“两房”发起资产证券化过程，并通过销售这些证券化产品进行融资。值得注意的是，当“两房”这样的政府支持型企业销售住房抵押贷款支持证券时，它们也为这些证券背后的住房抵押贷款提供了信用担保
-HL|金融的本质：伯南克四讲美联储(看一个风云人物的金融思考) |巴曙松|2020/5/13 22:06:02|美国国际集团等保险公司也会从事以这类证券为标的的保险业务。例如，它们会向投资者出售各类信用衍生品，在投资者支付一笔保费后，如果住房抵押贷款支持证券的基础资产出现违约，它们将予以全额赔付。这样一来，这类证券就可以获得AAA评级。当然，这些操作并没有使这类证券的基础资产本身的质量得到改善，反而为风险在整个金融体系中的扩散创造了条件。
-HL|金融的本质：伯南克四讲美联储(看一个风云人物的金融思考) |巴曙松|2020/5/13 22:06:19|这类证券会大量销售给投资者，包括养老基金、保险公司、外国银行，在某些情况下甚至还包括富裕的个人投资者，而发明这类证券的金融机构通常自己也会持有一部分
-HL|金融的本质：伯南克四讲美联储(看一个风云人物的金融思考) |巴曙松|2020/5/13 22:07:28|图3–2描述了次级住房抵押贷款的证券化过程。如图左边所示，“劣质住房抵押贷款”主要来自住房抵押贷款公司或从事贷款业务的储蓄公司。这些公司不会特别关注贷款的质量，因为它们可以将贷款卖给其他机构。在住房抵押贷款被卖给大型金融机构之后，这些金融机构会将住房抵押贷款或其他证券进行组合，形成另一种证券，这种证券实际上是其背后所有住房抵押贷款和其他证券的资产组合。
-HL|金融的本质：伯南克四讲美联储(看一个风云人物的金融思考) |巴曙松|2020/5/13 22:09:55|金融危机和恐慌往往发生在这样的情况下：各类金融机构资产负债表的资产端往往都是低流动性资产（如长期贷款），而负债端都是高流动性的短期负债（如储蓄存款）。就典型的银行危机而言，如果储户对银行资产的质量丧失了信心，他们就会争先恐后地从银行提取现金，而银行却没有能力满足每个人的提现需求，因为将贷款变现需要一定时间。所以，银行挤兑就会不断地自我放大。银行要么选择破产，要么在市场上大量甩卖其长期资产，免不了遭受巨额损失的命运
-HL|金融的本质：伯南克四讲美联储(看一个风云人物的金融思考) |巴曙松|2020/5/13 22:11:11|最严重的问题并不在于这些公司蒙受的损失，即使美国所有的次级住房抵押贷款都变得一文不值，其对金融体系造成的损失也只相当于一次股市风波：规模并不是很大。但是，关键问题在于，这些住房抵押贷款分布于不同的证券之中，并在不同的市场上流动，没有人真正知道这些证券在哪儿，也没有人知道谁将会遭受损失。这给金融市场带来了很大的不确定性。
-HL|金融的本质：伯南克四讲美联储(看一个风云人物的金融思考) |巴曙松|2020/5/13 22:14:15|在典型的银行挤兑事件中，一旦某家银行被怀疑存在问题，不管它的投资者、债权人或者交易对手的怀疑起于何时，他们都会迅速地将资金从该银行收回，只因为一个原因：储户会把资金从该银行撤离。这就会引发一连串的挤兑事件，对主要的几家金融机构造成巨大的压力；而随着金融机构融资能力的丧失，它们将不得不快速地甩卖资产，给一些重要的金融市场带来严重的混乱
-HL|金融的本质：伯南克四讲美联储(看一个风云人物的金融思考) |巴曙松|2020/5/13 22:18:39|这一点给我们的教训就是，在金融恐慌时期，中央银行应该根据“白芝浩原则”进行自由放贷，以避免银行挤兑，从而稳定金融体系。
-HL|金融的本质：伯南克四讲美联储(看一个风云人物的金融思考) |巴曙松|2020/5/13 22:19:15|“大萧条”给我们的第二个教训就是，要以宽松的货币政策来避免经济陷入深度衰退
-HL|金融的本质：伯南克四讲美联储(看一个风云人物的金融思考) |巴曙松|2020/5/13 22:30:15|而通常来说，贴现窗口贷款一般都是隔夜到期的。美联储延长了贴现时间，并对贴现窗口资金进行公开招标，让企业通过竞标决定其贷款利率
-HL|金融的本质：伯南克四讲美联储(看一个风云人物的金融思考) |巴曙松|2020/5/13 22:30:34|这里的关键之处在于，贴现窗口是实现美联储最后贷款人职能的常规工具，它非常管用，因此要不断地运用这一工具来确保银行获得现金，从而稳定市场恐慌情绪。
-HL|金融的本质：伯南克四讲美联储(看一个风云人物的金融思考) |巴曙松|2020/5/13 22:33:29|《联邦储备法案》第13条第3款中有这样一句话，在非常时期和紧急情况下，美联储可以为银行以外的实体提供贷款。自20世纪30年代以来，美联储都没有运用过这一特权。但是，本次危机情况特殊，随着不同的机构和市场陆续浮现出各种问题，美联储调用了这一特权，用以稳定各个市场
-HL|金融的本质：伯南克四讲美联储(看一个风云人物的金融思考) |巴曙松|2020/5/13 22:34:43|这类投资的期限很短，资产安全好，而且流动性高。所以，对于机构投资者而言，货币市场基金是进行现金资产管理的好工具。
-HL|金融的本质：伯南克四讲美联储(看一个风云人物的金融思考) |巴曙松|2020/5/13 22:37:36|投资者将闲置资金投资于货币市场基金，之后，货币市场基金用资金购买商业票据。这一过程不只是制造企业等非金融企业基本的融资渠道，也是从事贷款业务的金融机构基本的融资渠道。
-HL|金融的本质：伯南克四讲美联储(看一个风云人物的金融思考) |巴曙松|2020/5/13 22:40:25|面对这种形势，美国财政部和美联储迅速做出了反应。财政部启动临时担保计划，保证货币市场基金投资者的本金安全。之后，美联储又制订了一项流动性支持计划，即由美联储向银行提供贷款，银行再用这些资金去购买货币市场基金持有的资产。这就为货币市场基金提供了急需的流动性，使其能够满足投资者的赎回请求，从而有助于平息金融恐慌
-HL|金融的本质：伯南克四讲美联储(看一个风云人物的金融思考) |巴曙松|2020/5/13 22:41:24|向正在遭遇挤兑的金融机构提供流动性支持，以帮助其满足投资者的提现需求，同时向投资者提供担保，这样就能成功地平息挤兑。
-HL|金融的本质：伯南克四讲美联储(看一个风云人物的金融思考) |巴曙松|2020/5/15 24:34:14|金融改革的主要目标之一就是破除“大而不倒”的怪圈，因为它的存在对整个金融体系不利，对这些机构本身也不利。从许多方面来讲，“大而不倒”现象都是不公平的。破除这个怪圈将是一项伟大的成就。
-HL|金融的本质：伯南克四讲美联储(看一个风云人物的金融思考) |巴曙松|2020/5/16 22:23:58|这正是危机最紧张阶段过去后不久。有史以来第一次，我们向市场披露最主要银行的金融头寸。这些压力测试的结果表明，即使经济金融状况再度恶化，我们的银行也能够生存下去，从而大大增强了投资者的信心，使银行能够筹集大量私人资本，并且在一定程度上取代了在危机期间从政府手中获得的资金。
-HL|金融的本质：伯南克四讲美联储(看一个风云人物的金融思考) |巴曙松|2020/5/16 22:25:24|但更常见的是在为金融机构提供贷款、增加流动性时，美联储收取的利率低于危机利率（即恐慌利率），但高于正常的利率。所以，当金融体系稳定下来、利率恢复到正常水平时，美联储的贷款从经济上或财务上就变得没有吸引力了，项目自然会终止。
-HL|金融的本质：伯南克四讲美联储(看一个风云人物的金融思考) |巴曙松|2020/5/16 22:37:21|中央银行的两大基本工具是最后贷款人职能和货币政策，现在我们就来探讨第二种工具——货币政策。货币政策是遭受金融危机重创之后使经济走上复苏轨道所采用的主要工具。
-HL|金融的本质：伯南克四讲美联储(看一个风云人物的金融思考) |巴曙松|2020/5/16 22:47:12|主要的大规模资产购买计划有两轮，第一轮于2009年3月开始实施，常被称为QE1；第二轮自2010年11月开始实施，被称为QE2。
-HL|金融的本质：伯南克四讲美联储(看一个风云人物的金融思考) |巴曙松|2020/5/16 22:50:32|通过购买国债、写入资产负债表、减少这些国债的有效供给，我们有效地降低了长期国债和政府支持型企业证券的利率。
-HL|金融的本质：伯南克四讲美联储(看一个风云人物的金融思考) |巴曙松|2020/5/16 22:50:49|当你购买国债或者政府支持型企业证券并把它们写进资产负债表时，市场中可供应的同类证券就减少了。如果投资者想要持有这些证券，就必须接受较低的收益率。换句话说，如果市场中可供应的同类证券减少了，投资者就会愿意为这些证券支付更高的价格，这与收益率是相反的。
-HL|金融的本质：伯南克四讲美联储(看一个风云人物的金融思考) |巴曙松|2020/5/16 22:51:27|通过购买国债、写入资产负债表、减少这些国债的有效供给，我们有效地降低了长期国债和政府支持型企业证券的利率。而且，当投资者的投资组合中不再有国债和政府支持型企业证券时，他们就不得不转向其他类型的证券，比如公司债券，而这将提高其他证券的价格，降低其收益率。所以，这些行为的净效应是降低大范围内证券的收益率。通常，较低的利率对经济增长具有有益的刺激效应。
-HL|金融的本质：伯南克四讲美联储(看一个风云人物的金融思考) |巴曙松|2020/5/16 22:51:44|这实际上是另一种货币政策：我们聚焦在长期利率，而不是短期利率上。但是，这里的基本逻辑是一致的，都是降低利率，刺激经济增长
-HL|金融的本质：伯南克四讲美联储(看一个风云人物的金融思考) |巴曙松|2020/5/16 22:53:50|请大家首先看最底层，那是通货，即流通中的美联储票据。有时候大家会听到这样的新闻，即美联储正在印钞票来支付获取的证券。但是，从字面的实际含义来看，美联储并没有印钞票来获取这些证券。大家可以从这里的资产负债表看出，这一层基本上是平的，流通中的货币量并不受这些活动的影响。
-HL|金融的本质：伯南克四讲美联储(看一个风云人物的金融思考) |巴曙松|2020/5/16 22:54:36|真正受影响的是最底层上面的那一层，即准备金余额。那些是商业银行持有的美联储账户，属于银行系统的资产、美联储的负债，我们就用这些来支付购买的证券。银行系统有大量类似的准备金，它们以数字化形式存放在美联储，基本上只是存放在那里，既不流通，也不属于任何广义的货币供给的一部分。它们是货币基础的一部分，但毫无疑问不是现金
-HL|金融的本质：伯南克四讲美联储(看一个风云人物的金融思考) |巴曙松|2020/5/16 22:54:49|最主要的两项还是流通中的票据和银行持有的准备金。
-HL|金融的本质：伯南克四讲美联储(看一个风云人物的金融思考) |巴曙松|2020/5/16 22:57:02|从我的观点和美联储的分析来看，长期利率的下降对经济复苏和增长有提振作用
-HL|金融的本质：伯南克四讲美联储(看一个风云人物的金融思考) |巴曙松|2020/5/16 22:58:16|更容易，因为他们已经让市场相信美联储承诺保持低通货膨胀。而在过去30年左右的时间内，美联储也树立了很高的信誉。因此，市场坚信美联储将会维持低通货膨胀，对通货膨胀的预期一直维持在低水平。总体来说，除了石油价格波动偶尔造成的起伏，通货膨胀一直稳定在较低水平。
-HL|金融的本质：伯南克四讲美联储(看一个风云人物的金融思考) |巴曙松|2020/5/16 23:01:02|当短期利率的调控空间被耗尽后，我们的主要工具就是大规模资产购买计划。
-HL|金融的本质：伯南克四讲美联储(看一个风云人物的金融思考) |巴曙松|2020/5/17 8:30:18|我们从中可以吸取一个教训：货币政策虽然是强有力的工具，但无法解决存在的所有问题。尤其需要提及的是，我们在经济复苏中看到的一系列与房地产市场、抵押信贷市场、银行、信用展期以及与欧洲形势相关的结构性问题，都需要其他类型的政策——财政政策、房地产政策或其他任何政策——来促使经济回归正轨。美联储可以提供经济刺激，可以提供低利率，但货币政策本身无法解决结构性问题、财政问题以及其他影响经济的重要问题。
-HL|金融的本质：伯南克四讲美联储(看一个风云人物的金融思考) |巴曙松|2020/5/17 9:10:06|在金融危机中，美联储及其他金融监管机构面临的一个十分糟糕的选择是：要么试图防止一些像美国国际集团这样的大型机构破产，而这恰恰默许了“大而不倒”，并意味着金融机构没有因其所承担的高风险受到充分惩罚；要么听任它们破产，继而有可能动摇整个金融体系和经济体。上述即“大而不倒”问题。
-HL|金融的本质：伯南克四讲美联储(看一个风云人物的金融思考) |巴曙松|2020/5/17 9:13:26|美联储的创建就是为了试着减少金融恐慌的影响范围；金融稳定是建立美联储的初衷
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-HL|钱从哪里来 |香帅|2020/2/6 23:51:16|三大都市圈（京津冀、长江三角洲、珠江二角洲）以及众多核心大城市的基础设施建设还有很大的提升空间；各大城市还需要更多投资，才能承载更高水平、更高质量的城市化。
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-HL|薛兆丰经济学讲义 |薛兆丰|2020/1/13 8:11:05|么到底什么叫边际？边际就是“新增”带来的“新增”。 例如，边际成本就是每新增一个单位产品所需要付出的新增成本；边际收入是每多卖一个产品能够带来的新增收入；边际产量是每新增一份投入所带来的新增产量；边际效用是每消耗一个单位的商品所能带来的新增享受。
-HL|薛兆丰经济学讲义 |薛兆丰|2020/1/13 8:12:49|这就是边际效用递减的规律，它指的是每多消耗一个单位的商品，所能带来的新增的享受在递减。例如我们吃东西的时候，食物带给我们的边际效用，通常都是递减的。
-HL|薛兆丰经济学讲义 |薛兆丰|2020/1/30 12:33:44|的是，在新闻里，我们不仅会听到抱怨贸易逆差，还会听到抱怨贸易顺差。当人们抱怨贸易逆差时，说我们国家的钱都被外国人赚走了。这时，他们没有提到，由于进口了许多外国商品，他们国家的人享受了许多优质商品。当人们抱怨贸易顺差时，他们会说，我们国家的资源都被外国人给买走了。但这时他们没有提，我们赚了不少外国人的钱，从而获取了将来进一步享受外国人提供的商品和服务的机会。
-HL|薛兆丰经济学讲义 |薛兆丰|2020/1/30 9:42:07|要成功实施价格歧视，最重要的就是要防止消费者之间对同样的产品进行转售。越是难以阻止消费者转售的产品，就越难实施价格歧视。
-HL|薛兆丰经济学讲义 |薛兆丰|2020/1/30 9:42:36|但对于那些不能转售的商品或者服务，商人就会进行大量价格歧视，比如在餐厅里喝的水和饮料，和餐厅以外的便利店比，它们的价格差距就非常大。
-HL|薛兆丰经济学讲义 |薛兆丰|2020/1/30 9:42:49|人们对一种产品趋之若鹜的地区，价格就定得高一点；
-HL|薛兆丰经济学讲义 |薛兆丰|2020/1/30 9:43:35|价格歧视的三种方法
-HL|薛兆丰经济学讲义 |薛兆丰|2020/1/30 9:44:23|实名制的飞机票，也是大量实施价格歧视的典型案例。
-HL|薛兆丰经济学讲义 |薛兆丰|2020/1/30 9:47:00|如果演唱会门票价格过低，歌迷就不得不展开价格以外的竞争，那就是排队等候。什么人更愿意排队等候呢？是那些时间成本比较低的人，通常是年轻人。这样做的结果，是能够把那些更年轻、更热情、更奔放的歌迷吸引到演唱会现场，这样演唱会的现场就会更加火爆。
-HL|薛兆丰经济学讲义 |薛兆丰|2020/1/30 9:47:06|还有一种非常有趣的价格歧视：歌星在发售演唱会门票时，有时会刻意把门票的价格降低。
-HL|薛兆丰经济学讲义 |薛兆丰|2020/1/30 10:22:51|弗里德曼强调的就是我们这里所说的优质的第二层含义。对消费者来说，并不是质量越高越好，也不是价格越低越好，而是价格和品质要相当，成本和收益要相当。这才是他们最看中的品质。
-HL|薛兆丰经济学讲义 |薛兆丰|2020/1/30 10:23:14|好几年前，一辆校车发生意外，造成了严重的伤亡，社会各界人士出来说，应该制定校车的安全标准。我的一个朋友也参与了这一标准的制定，但后来他放弃了。因为他发现，如果不计成本凭空制定校车的安全标准，最后校车的标准快要接近坦克车的标准了。
-HL|薛兆丰经济学讲义 |薛兆丰|2020/1/30 10:23:58|一个国家很大，贫富有差距，并非每个学校和家长都能负担得起这样标准的校车。标准太高，就会逼着很多学校，尤其是农村的学校放弃提供校车，家长们就只能使用安全性能更低的交通工具，比如自己骑自行车或雇用黑车等，结果是孩子们享受到的安全保障反而降低了。
-NT|薛兆丰经济学讲义 |薛兆丰|2020/1/30 10:26:31|山寨 假货 问题
-HL|薛兆丰经济学讲义 |薛兆丰|2020/1/30 10:29:41|为了克服信息不对称，建立互信，人类社会构想出了各种各样有趣的解决方案，从重复交易到第三方背书，从质保、延保，再到收益共享。此外，还有三种非常接近的建立信任的办法：付出沉没成本、给出人质或者给出抵押。
-HL|薛兆丰经济学讲义 |薛兆丰|2020/1/30 10:32:11|银行是一个很难取信于人的行业。因为客户把钱交给银行，万一哪天银行把钱卷走了，客户就会血本无归。为了建立信任，好银行往往把总部设在城市最繁华的地段，而且不是租的，是买的，或者是自己盖的。这能让人相信，它们打算一直在这里，不会搬走，它们要做50年、100年。
-HL|薛兆丰经济学讲义 |薛兆丰|2020/1/30 10:33:44|越是愿意自残的人，越是容易取信于人，所以中国人才有所谓“感情深一口闷”之类酒桌上的谚语。
-HL|薛兆丰经济学讲义 |薛兆丰|2020/1/30 10:35:02|可以推测，当我们这个社会信任机制建立得越来越健全，人与人之间可以通过其他各种各样的方式来建立信任时，通过喝酒等自残的方式来建立信任的办法就会用得越来越少，而喝酒就变得纯粹是娱乐了。
-HL|薛兆丰经济学讲义 |薛兆丰|2020/1/30 10:35:45|跟付出沉没成本相似的另外一个办法，是给出人质。一个大国的国王跟小国的国王说：“你放心吧，我不会侵略你，你们不要搞军备、不要武装起来了。”小国相信吗？小国不相信。但如果大国国王把自己的女儿嫁到小国去做人质，小国就比较容易相信了。
-HL|薛兆丰经济学讲义 |薛兆丰|2020/1/30 10:35:51|当然，除了交出人质以外，付出抵押也是同样的办法。如果既没有人质，又没有抵押，那该怎么办？还有一些比较便宜的办法，就是互相分享一点秘密，互相交个底，说点自己以前见不得光的事情，那也算是一种无形的抵押。
-HL|薛兆丰经济学讲义 |薛兆丰|2020/1/30 10:38:28|厂商用实际行动告诉消费者，我已经花掉了一个亿，将来只有一个办法才能把这一个亿收回来：那就是在未来若干年里，持续地卖出10亿瓶水，每瓶水都保证质量，每瓶水都多收一毛钱。在出售这10亿瓶水的销售期内，如果被发现质量问题，消费者就会减少甚至停止购买，厂商前面付出的那一个亿就打水漂了。
-HL|薛兆丰经济学讲义 |薛兆丰|2020/1/30 10:50:02|这时，有意思的结论就来了。从斯密和李嘉图开始，我们就知道分工能够提高生产效率，分工越细，人们就越能够集中生产自己擅长的东西，然后进行交换，这样人们的整体福利就能得以提高。 但是我们这里讲品质管理时是反其道而行的，我们要做的是垂直整合：加工厂不仅要有自己的奶牛，还要有自己的饲料来源。从种草、割草、送草，到养牛、挤奶、检验、加工，全是一家企业内部完成的工序。
-HL|薛兆丰经济学讲义 |薛兆丰|2020/1/30 10:58:49|如果半成品或者成品的检验成本比较低，换手的次数就可以多些，就可以进行更细的分工；相反，如果品质检验的成本比较高，就需要更多地进行垂直整合，减少中间环节。
-HL|薛兆丰经济学讲义 |薛兆丰|2020/1/30 11:00:09|损失掉一部分品牌的多样性，换来的是稳定性和可靠性，这么做可能是现代社会提高产品质量可靠性的一种趋势。
-HL|薛兆丰经济学讲义 |薛兆丰|2020/1/30 11:18:55|他的理由是，在这种产品发生意外对顾客造成伤害的案件中，要让顾客提出证据证明厂商存在疏忽是非常困难的，顾客必须是专家才有可能提出证据。
-HL|薛兆丰经济学讲义 |薛兆丰|2020/1/30 11:19:26|他认为只要产品出现明显的质量问题，无需证据就可以判企业疏忽，企业应该对自己的产品负有严格的责任，顾客不需要提供关于疏忽的证据就能够获得赔偿。这种无条件的责任叫“严格责任”
-HL|薛兆丰经济学讲义 |薛兆丰|2020/1/30 11:20:16|这样的做法有其合理之处。因为一件产品销售给千家万户，每一位顾客都有不同的使用场景，如果用玻璃瓶装的可口可乐，在一些比较正常的状态下也会发生爆炸，那就要求每一位顾客都成为专家，对气温、压强、搬动的程序等，都有比较深入的了解，否则意外就难以避免。这样，整个社会避免意外发生的成本也太高了。反过来，只要可口可乐公司能够把瓶子做得更结实一点，就能够一劳永逸地解决问题，所有顾客都不需要担心了。因此让商家承担严格责任，是有必要的。
-HL|薛兆丰经济学讲义 |薛兆丰|2020/1/30 11:21:53|如果他的责任还是太大，既没有办法通过买保险来分摊，也没有办法通过提高商品的价格来分摊，那么他就会面临两个选择：一个是铤而走险，继续生产，一旦出了事就破产、坐牢；如果他小心谨慎一点，会做第二个选择，那就是不再生产，完全退出市场。
-HL|薛兆丰经济学讲义 |薛兆丰|2020/1/30 11:22:08|但是如果责任人事实上是没有能力解决问题、避免意外的，他会怎么办？他的一个合理做法是去买保险，将风险分摊给其他人。与此同时，他也可以提高产品的售价，把自己所要承担的风险重新分摊给所有顾客，让所有顾客一起来承担。
-HL|薛兆丰经济学讲义 |薛兆丰|2020/1/30 11:24:00|大家会说提高食品和药品的质量总是好的，但经济学的分析告诉我们，凡事都有成本。与销售利润没有任何牵连的审批官员，他们确实不会像商家那样追求利润，但他们追求产品的极致安全，而追求产品的极致安全，本身是有成本的。
-HL|薛兆丰经济学讲义 |薛兆丰|2020/1/30 11:25:45|美国食品药品监督管理局（Food and Drug Administration, FDA）为例
-HL|薛兆丰经济学讲义 |薛兆丰|2020/1/30 11:26:02|1962年，当时的美国总统约翰·肯尼迪还专门给FDA的局长颁发了一枚勋章，以表彰FDA的贡献。
-HL|薛兆丰经济学讲义 |薛兆丰|2020/1/30 11:43:33|奥地利学派认为，要避免经济周期最根本的办法就是政府抑制住乱印钞票的冲动。关于如何抑制政府乱印钞票，奥地利学派提出了两个基本的主张：第一是要回到金本位，第二是实施自由发钞制度。
-NT|薛兆丰经济学讲义 |薛兆丰|2020/1/30 11:46:00|超超发 —>利率下降—>投资增加—>信心增加—>虚假繁荣
-HL|薛兆丰经济学讲义 |薛兆丰|2020/1/30 24:21:10|没有哪个社会能忍受日益恶化的通货膨胀，政府迟早会采取行动，收缩货币的发行量。这时，当初人们制订的那些长远规划就找不到足够的资金来维持，资金链断裂、泡沫破灭了。这就是奥地利学派理解的经济周期发生的过程。
-HL|薛兆丰经济学讲义 |薛兆丰|2020/1/30 24:46:37|凯恩斯主义学派的基本主张是，政府应该逆经济周期而行，人们都在消费时政府就少采取动作；人们都不消费时，政府就应该积极消费、积极投资、积极生产。
-HL|薛兆丰经济学讲义 |薛兆丰|2020/1/30 24:46:59|这里要说明的是，凯恩斯本人其实是深信市场自行调节功能的，他指出一旦社会回到正常的状态，政府就应该停止干预，让市场机制自己发挥作用。换句话说凯恩斯主义者关心的是要解决短期内出现的问题，尤其是短期内出现的失业问题，这时创造需求、制造就业机会就是政府的责任
-HL|薛兆丰经济学讲义 |薛兆丰|2020/1/30 24:48:31|货币政策是通过发钞的办法影响人们的预期，使得就业得以增加。当然发钞会引起通货膨胀，但早期的凯恩斯主义者相信在通货膨胀和失业率之间存在着替代关系，多发钞失业率就会降低，但后来发现这一招不管用了，市场出现了通货膨胀率和失业率同时高涨——滞胀——的情况。
-NT|薛兆丰经济学讲义 |薛兆丰|2020/1/30 24:50:33|超发 通胀 刺激经济 提高就业 . 滞涨破坏这个逻辑
-HL|薛兆丰经济学讲义 |薛兆丰|2020/1/30 24:59:05|把今天的责任推给将来的人，这么做可行吗？这个国家长远该怎么办？凯恩斯的经典回答是：“从长远而言，我们都将一命呜呼。”他的意思是，情况很特殊，这次不一样，管不了那么远的事了。当然，人们随时都可以把“这次不一样”作为违反原则的理由
-HL|薛兆丰经济学讲义 |薛兆丰|2020/1/30 13:03:09|弗里德曼的名言是：“通货膨胀到处以及永远都是一种货币现象。”（Inflation is everywhere and always a monetary phenomenon.）
-HL|薛兆丰经济学讲义 |薛兆丰|2020/1/30 13:10:04|货市主义者认为，当新增的货币流动到社会每一个角落以后，除了物价水平上涨，其他任何事情都不会改变。长期而言，政府通过货币政策来干预经济的努力是无效的。
-HL|薛兆丰经济学讲义 |薛兆丰|2020/1/30 13:17:31|既然通货膨胀无论何时何地都是一种货币现象，那怎样才能抑制政府乱发钞票的冲动呢？ 奥地利学派认为，要回到金本位或者要实施自由发钞制度。而弗里德曼提出的办法是要盯死货币发行增量。哪个政府都会忍不住乱发钞票，所以解决的办法是把货币增长比例写到宪法里去，谁也改不了。
-HL|薛兆丰经济学讲义 |薛兆丰|2020/1/30 13:23:36|如果社会上的失业率高涨，政府就去制造通货膨胀来对付失业率，那么第一次、第二次人们会真的以为经济变好了，开始增加投资多雇人，但试过一两次以后，人们就会形成更明确的预期，知道这只不过是政府对付眼前问题的花招，他们再做投资和雇人决策时，就会格外小心。社会上这样的人多了，政府的政策就会失效。
-HL|薛兆丰经济学讲义 |薛兆丰|2020/1/30 13:23:53|同样的道理，当政府看到社会上消费不足，发钱让人们消费时，人们就会逐渐明白，“政府发的钱不是白给的，迟早会通过增加税收的方式要回去，所以哪怕是拿了政府的钱也不能乱花”。这时政府的政策又失效了。
-HL|薛兆丰经济学讲义 |薛兆丰|2020/1/30 13:24:14|政府的政策赖以形成的经济模型，其中的参数是会随着人们预期的改变而改变的。当人们一旦形成预期，那些模型就不起作用了
-HL|薛兆丰经济学讲义 |薛兆丰|2020/1/30 13:26:09|但真实经济周期理论却认为，经济学家所说的外生变量、冲击，其实是无所不在的，发生意外的冲击是我们真实生活里的常态。 干旱、地震、飓风、洪水，当然是一种冲击；新的科技发明、新的技术创新、新的市场营销手段、新的支付和结算方式，也是一种冲击；新的观念、风尚、潮流，也是冲击。
-HL|薛兆丰经济学讲义 |薛兆丰|2020/1/30 13:27:55|如果在这以前，政府觉得出现了闲置的劳动力、出现了失业，应该管一管，从而刻意制造一些本来市场不需要的岗位让人们去做，让多余的劳动力去填充，这实际上是造成了浪费，妨碍了人们去寻找真正有价值的工作机会。
-HL|薛兆丰经济学讲义 |薛兆丰|2020/1/30 13:28:55|生活中到处都是冲击，要应付这些冲击，人们的反应不是即时的，而是滞后的，不是全面的，而是渐进的。这本身就是合理的。额外的干预不会解决问题，而只会产生新的问题。
-HL|薛兆丰经济学讲义 |薛兆丰|2020/1/30 13:29:16|一个人得了病，去住院是正常的，住院当然是劳动力的一种浪费，但产生这种浪费的根源——得病——早就已经发生了，再阻止这个人去住院是于事无补的。所以不让那些本来应该失业的人失业，那也是错的，错上加错并不能变成对。
-HL|薛兆丰经济学讲义 |薛兆丰|2020/1/30 13:32:49|凯恩斯不是职业经济学家，而是英国上流社会的名人、记者、政府官员和投资家。他在1936年出版了《就业、利息和货币通论》，从此开创了宏观经济学这个学术分支。这本书到今天，已经有80多年的历史了，但是你到美国的书店去看，不管书店有多大，不管经济学的书架有多小，里面一定还放着凯恩斯的这本《就业、利息和货币通论》
-HL|薛兆丰经济学讲义 |薛兆丰|2020/1/30 13:33:57|凯恩斯的直觉非常准，他看到了这一点，于是就用他独特的语言来描述这种现象。在他的著作里，这种难以名状、难以刻画、难以衡量的不确定性被称之为“动物精神”。他说正是由于这些莫名其妙的原因，人们的需求忽然下降了，经济不发展了，而解决问题的办法就是要鼓励人们去消费
-HL|薛兆丰经济学讲义 |薛兆丰|2020/1/30 13:34:11|当人们面对不确定性的冲击，当他们发现用精准的数学根本无力招架、无法应对的时候，他们就只能诉诸直觉、比喻、经验、自信以及勇气。这是宏观经济学真正深不可测的原因。
-HL|薛兆丰经济学讲义 |薛兆丰|2020/1/30 13:37:08|从长期看，通货膨胀和失业之间并不存在稳定的替代关系，也就是说不可能通过制造通货膨胀来降低失业率。
-HL|薛兆丰经济学讲义 |薛兆丰|2020/1/30 13:37:23|从长期看，货币增长率决定了通货膨胀率，滥印钞票迟早会造成通货膨胀
-HL|薛兆丰经济学讲义 |薛兆丰|2020/1/30 14:25:39|到了1992年，联邦储备局波士顿分行发布了一份所谓的科学统计报告，声称经过严密的计算，美国商业银行肯定是对弱势群体进行了歧视。 实际上，商业银行迫于竞争，并不会随便歧视弱势群体。如果真的还得起房贷，而银行不给贷款，这岂不是银行的损失？但是大众并不相信。这份报告出来以后，整个社会掀起了一场要求对弱势群体发放更多贷款的运动。
-HL|薛兆丰经济学讲义 |薛兆丰|2020/1/30 14:26:48|成本是放弃了的最大代价
-HL|薛兆丰经济学讲义 |薛兆丰|2020/1/30 14:27:16|沉没成本不是成本
-HL|薛兆丰经济学讲义 |薛兆丰|2020/1/30 14:27:28|一块地不仅可以用来建采石场或者建住宅小区，它还有好多其他用途：A、B、C、D、E……当一个资源有若干个选项时，被选中的那个选项，它的成本就是所有放弃了的选项当中价值最高的那个。简言之，成本就是放弃了的最大代价。（Cost is the best opportunity foregone.）
-HL|薛兆丰经济学讲义 |薛兆丰|2020/1/30 14:28:33|沉没成本，就是指那些已经发生但不可收回的支出。当我们没办法再收回、没办法再放弃时，就不存在成本。凡是提到成本，我们一定是向前（未来）看，而不是向后（过去）看的。所以，沉没成本不是成本。
-HL|薛兆丰经济学讲义 |薛兆丰|2020/1/30 14:30:19|负面的感受不是成本
-HL|薛兆丰经济学讲义 |薛兆丰|2020/1/30 14:30:28|比如我们要在自家院子里修一个游泳池，修游泳池的过程，有许多负面感受：辛苦、劳累、一段时间的脏乱差等，但这些都不是修游泳池的成本，因为没有放弃什么东西。修了游泳池，这个地方就不能搭帐篷，那个放弃了的帐篷才是我们修游泳池的成本。
-HL|薛兆丰经济学讲义 |薛兆丰|2020/1/30 14:30:48|你的成本由别人决定
-HL|薛兆丰经济学讲义 |薛兆丰|2020/1/30 14:31:23|如果有人愿意出2万元钱租这个铺位，那么坚持卖茶叶蛋的成本就是2万元；如果有人愿意出3万元，那么成本就是3万元，跟这房子是谁的没有关系。坚持卖茶叶蛋的成本，只跟一个因素有关系，那就是放弃了的最大收入。 你
-HL|薛兆丰经济学讲义 |薛兆丰|2020/1/30 14:33:07|一个青年，被征去当兵以后，就不能从事他原来的职业了。这时虽然多了一个廉价的士兵，但可能少了一位化学家、一个小提琴手，或是一位企业家。总的来说，义务兵制的成本是非常高的，因为它放弃的代价是不可估量的。
-HL|薛兆丰经济学讲义 |薛兆丰|2020/1/30 14:33:21|义务征兵时，政府付出的货币成本确实比较低，但是他没有看到另外一个重要成本，就是放弃了的最大代价。
-HL|薛兆丰经济学讲义 |薛兆丰|2020/1/30 14:33:37|给士兵发薪水比免费征兵更便宜
-HL|薛兆丰经济学讲义 |薛兆丰|2020/1/30 14:35:21|经济学家米尔顿·弗里德曼曾经给美国政府提过不少建议，大多数都没被接受。但是这一条，建议将征兵制改为志愿兵制，就被美国政府接受了。这对于减少美国的国防总成本，提高征兵效率，提高兵员质量，有极大的帮助。
-HL|薛兆丰经济学讲义 |薛兆丰|2020/1/30 14:36:23|在大多数情况下，中间商在帮助我们减少总成本，而不是增加总成本，而中间商之间的竞争，会使物流的总成本降到最低。
-HL|薛兆丰经济学讲义 |薛兆丰|2020/1/30 14:40:39|亏损会降低资源未来使用的成本
-HL|薛兆丰经济学讲义 |薛兆丰|2020/1/30 14:40:45|盈利提高了资源未来使用的成本
-HL|薛兆丰经济学讲义 |薛兆丰|2020/1/30 14:41:16|无论是盈利还是亏损，在经济学里，都是意外发生的。每当发生意外，我们就重新调整资源的未来估值，而资源使用的成本，就要按照这个新的估值来计算。所以，一旦出现盈利，资源的使用成本就会提高；一旦出现亏损，资源的使用成本就会下降。
-HL|薛兆丰经济学讲义 |薛兆丰|2020/1/30 14:41:57|供需关系决定商品价格，商品价格决定资源成本
-HL|薛兆丰经济学讲义 |薛兆丰|2020/1/30 14:42:24|把钱赚到手以后，再把赚到的钱倒过来归结到前面每一个环节的生产要素里面去，从而给这些生产要素定价，决定它们的价值。
-HL|薛兆丰经济学讲义 |薛兆丰|2020/1/30 14:45:11|政府无论是免费把土地送出去，还是高价拍卖土地，对最终的房价都不会造成影响。
-NT|薛兆丰经济学讲义 |薛兆丰|2020/1/30 14:46:51|不对 供需决定价格 土地供给充裕意味着房子供给充裕 怎么不导致房价降低?
-HL|薛兆丰经济学讲义 |薛兆丰|2020/1/30 14:47:08|经济学里有一个非常重要的概念，叫“租”。所谓租，就是对资产的付费
-HL|薛兆丰经济学讲义 |薛兆丰|2020/1/30 14:47:18|只要能够带来收入的资源都叫资产，而对资产的付费就叫租。
-HL|薛兆丰经济学讲义 |薛兆丰|2020/1/30 14:48:31|他当歌星的收入减10万元，减20万元，减500万元，减900万元，他都照样当歌星。这990万元是他白赚的，这就叫租。
-HL|薛兆丰经济学讲义 |薛兆丰|2020/1/30 14:49:09|赚多赚少都是白得的，这就叫租。当然，有时候我们也把它叫“垄断租”，因为它是在数量管制的保护之下从事的一种垄断经营。
-HL|薛兆丰经济学讲义 |薛兆丰|2020/1/30 14:51:04|只要能够带来收入的资源都叫资产，而对资产的付费就叫租
-HL|薛兆丰经济学讲义 |薛兆丰|2020/1/30 14:53:40|科斯的看法则别具一格，他说所有的伤害都是相互的，我们得用新的眼光来看待这些案例：不是一方在伤害另外一方，而是双方为了不同的用途，在争夺相同的稀缺的资源：牛跟小麦争的是那块地，如果让牛吃小麦，那牛就伤害了小麦；但如果禁止牛吃小麦，小麦就伤害了牛。
-HL|薛兆丰经济学讲义 |薛兆丰|2020/1/30 14:54:09|关于科斯理论的争论，法律经济学者、芝加哥大学法学院教授理查德·爱泼斯坦（Richard Epstein）曾提出过一个观点。他说，如果争夺资源的双方是同一个人，那会发生什么情况？以这样的角度来重新审视前面提到的案子，可能就会豁然开朗了。
-HL|薛兆丰经济学讲义 |薛兆丰|2020/1/30 14:54:15|例如牛跟小麦之争，假设牛跟小麦同属一人，这时，牛能不能吃小麦，就取决于牛肉能卖多少钱，小麦能卖多少钱。如果小麦价格高，牛肯定不能随便吃小麦；但如果牛肉价格足够高，牛当然可以吃小麦，不仅可以吃小麦，还要给它听莫扎特的音乐，给它按摩呢。
-HL|薛兆丰经济学讲义 |薛兆丰|2020/1/30 14:55:16|谁避免意外成本最低，谁的责任就最大
-HL|薛兆丰经济学讲义 |薛兆丰|2020/1/30 14:55:46|这个想法非常重要。正是基于这个想法，科斯的意思是说，火星烧着了亚麻，但是责任可能在农夫，虽然农夫并未招惹铁路公司。谁付出的成本更低，谁就应该承担更大的责任。那既然农夫避免意外所要付出的成本，比铁路公司避免意外所要付出的成本低得多，那挪开亚麻的责任，就要落到农夫身上了
-HL|薛兆丰经济学讲义 |薛兆丰|2020/1/30 14:57:03|科斯定律最流行的版本是：在交易费用为零或足够低的情况下，不管资源最初的主人是谁，资源都同样会流到价值最高的用途上去。用大白话来说，就是“谁用得好就归谁”。
-HL|薛兆丰经济学讲义 |薛兆丰|2020/1/30 14:57:23|钻石归矿工还是白富美
-HL|薛兆丰经济学讲义 |薛兆丰|2020/1/30 14:59:13|这就引发了一场关于狼的争论。最后人们从科斯定律的角度找到了解决办法，那就是养牲口的人，如果能证明自己的牲口被狼咬死了，那么养狼的人就需要向他提供一定数目的赔偿。从此，养狼的人就知道养狼是有代价的，他们必须把狼群的数目控制在一个合理的范围内，我们通常把这个价叫作“科斯对价”（Coasian payment）。就这样，一个是否应该养狼的问题，一个非黑即白的问题，就转变为应该养多少狼、谁来监控、谁来负责的问题，也就是一个关于如何分配和使用资源的问题。
-HL|薛兆丰经济学讲义 |薛兆丰|2020/1/30 15:01:09|我们说科斯定律最流行的一个版本是：在交易费用为零或足够低的情况下，不管产权归谁，资源都会落到最有价值的用途上。
-HL|薛兆丰经济学讲义 |薛兆丰|2020/1/30 15:02:42|但现实生活中交易费用很高，很多资源是没有办法落到使用价值更高的人手里的。因此，初始的产权分配、制度法规、风俗习惯，乃至道德规范，就都变得很重要了。我们可以把社会上通行的制度、习俗和道德规范，都看成为了减少重复商议的成本而逐渐固定下来的解决纠纷的办法。
-HL|薛兆丰经济学讲义 |薛兆丰|2020/1/30 15:03:07|而这就是所有的制度、风俗、习惯，以至政府、法院存在的根本理由——对资源、责任、权利进行初始的界定。
-HL|薛兆丰经济学讲义 |薛兆丰|2020/1/30 15:04:36|另外一个问题就是不合作的所有者，也就是所谓的“钉子户”。根据《强制销售条例》，只要不可分割的物业的90%以上的所有者同意出售，那么剩下的10%的业主，就必须出售他的土地和相应的物业。2010年，这个条例又做了修改，比例从90%下降到80%。当然，里面还加了一条，要进行这种征地，必须经过特区行政长官的批准。 到底是90%合理还是80%更合理呢？我们不可能有一个科学的界定。
-HL|薛兆丰经济学讲义 |薛兆丰|2020/1/30 15:07:10|这是我们寻求合作解，“不讲理，只讲数”的一个很好的例子。我们应当充分领会科斯定律的精神，在现实生活的各种冲突中积极地寻找合作解。
-HL|薛兆丰经济学讲义 |薛兆丰|2020/1/30 15:25:11|当我们把口袋里有限的钱，按“边际效用等于边际成本”的原则，分别用来购买不同的产品时，我们从这些不同的产品那里获得的总收益，就会达到最大。
-HL|薛兆丰经济学讲义 |薛兆丰|2020/1/30 15:33:40|我们怎么能知道不存在“价格上升需求量也上升”的例子呢？的确有过一些记载，但它们几乎全都可以理解为价格以外的某些因素发生了变化
-HL|薛兆丰经济学讲义 |薛兆丰|2020/1/30 15:37:31|一件商品是奢侈品还是必需品，完全取决于价格
-HL|薛兆丰经济学讲义 |薛兆丰|2020/1/30 15:37:51|需求曲线上的弹性处处不等，价格越高弹性越大
-NT|薛兆丰经济学讲义 |薛兆丰|2020/1/30 15:39:17|古董价格 vs 水电煤
-HL|薛兆丰经济学讲义 |薛兆丰|2020/1/30 15:39:47|掌握了商品的需求弹性会随着商品价格的变化而变化的规律，我们就容易明白一个道理：任何商品都既可以是奢侈品，也可以是必需品，这完全取决于价格的高低。当商品足够便宜的时候，它自然就成为必需品；当它贵到一定程度，它就自然变成奢侈品。
-HL|薛兆丰经济学讲义 |薛兆丰|2020/1/30 15:40:16|例如，水到底是奢侈品还是必需品？一般人会说，水当然是必需品。但想想看，在水资源特别匮乏的地方，人们使用水的数量，跟水资源非常丰富的地方，是完全不一样的。水资源特别匮乏时，人们不会随便浇花、洗车、洗澡。少量的水会先洗脸再洗脚，洗完脚又刷鞋，刷完鞋还要拿来冲厕所。
-HL|薛兆丰经济学讲义 |薛兆丰|2020/1/30 15:42:12|这种变化趋势就是需求第二定律所说的：随着时间的推移，需求对价格的弹性会变得越来越高，也就是说替代品将会越来越多、应变的空间会越来越大。
-HL|薛兆丰经济学讲义 |薛兆丰|2020/1/30 15:45:02|这就是需求第三定律的含义：每当消费者必须支付一笔附加费时，高品质的产品相对低品质的产品就变得便宜了，这笔附加费越高，高品质产品相对就越便宜。正因为这样，我们也把这个定律叫作“好东西运到远方去定律”。
-NT|薛兆丰经济学讲义 |薛兆丰|2020/1/30 15:46:14|包装费用
-HL|薛兆丰经济学讲义 |薛兆丰|2020/1/30 15:48:56|大家都批评发国难财的行为。但我们想想，国难是那个发国难财的人造成的吗？如果不是，那么借机发财的人，其实就只是给别人多提供了一个选择罢了。发国难财的人可能确实利用了别人，但是这种利用，对另一方来说也是有好处的。
-HL|薛兆丰经济学讲义 |薛兆丰|2020/1/30 15:49:25|生活中乘人之危来利用他人的现实，其实很多。比如，医生不就利用了病人生病吗？老师不就利用了学生无知吗？但是医生对病人来说是有帮助的，老师对学生来说也是有帮助的。但这个道理很多人都不明白，不管是中国人还是外国人
-HL|薛兆丰经济学讲义 |薛兆丰|2020/1/30 15:54:33|这三位经济学家，一位是1992年获得诺贝尔奖的加里·贝克尔（Gary Becker），他说发国难财是增加供给的最好办法，当然应该鼓励。第二位经济学家是2002年诺奖得主弗农·史密斯（Vernon Smith），他说发国难财是好事。第三位经济学家是大家熟悉的1976年的诺奖得主米尔顿·弗里德曼，他说：“这些发国难财的人，是在救别人的命，他们应该得到一个奖章，而不是得到惩罚。
-HL|薛兆丰经济学讲义 |薛兆丰|2020/1/30 15:54:56|阻止发国难财的直接后果，就是剥夺了遭受灾害的人的选择。
-HL|薛兆丰经济学讲义 |薛兆丰|2020/1/30 15:56:04|我们在经济学中学到的最重要的教训之一，就是把愿望和结果分开来看。愿望是一回事，但愿望造成的结果是另外一回事。
-HL|薛兆丰经济学讲义 |薛兆丰|2020/1/30 15:56:30|一个人想要买最便宜的苹果，但是当他进入市场寻找最便宜的苹果时，他的寻找行为本身就使得苹果的价格上升了。一个人想要卖最贵的苹果，但是当他进入市场，想要把自己的苹果以最高价卖出去时，他的行为本身就已经使得苹果的价格下跌了。
-HL|薛兆丰经济学讲义 |薛兆丰|2020/1/30 15:56:45|那些乘人之危发财的人，他们自己本身的行为就增加了供给，使商品的价格下降，缓解了供需之间的矛盾。
-HL|薛兆丰经济学讲义 |薛兆丰|2020/1/30 16:00:43|回顾中国的经济改革，如果只用一句话来概括，我会说，它是有关竞争规则改变的改革：从过去看排队的时间，看出身，看政治面貌，变成另外一个规则，那就是看出价的高低。
-HL|薛兆丰经济学讲义 |薛兆丰|2020/1/30 16:01:23|短缺是因为价格受到了抑制
-HL|薛兆丰经济学讲义 |薛兆丰|2020/1/30 16:01:48|春节期间买不到火车票，人们要找黄牛党才能买到，这叫短缺
-HL|薛兆丰经济学讲义 |薛兆丰|2020/1/30 16:02:46|同样的道理，我们也没有听说奔驰汽车短缺过。它只是稀缺，但不会短缺，它永远在商店里等着我们。哪怕是暂时缺货，也不会成为一个新闻，不会成为一个社会现象。蒂芙尼的钻石也一样，它永远待在商店里等待着顾客。人们只要把钱放下，就可以带它回家。我们从未看哪个媒体说，蒂芙尼的钻石短缺了
-HL|薛兆丰经济学讲义 |薛兆丰|2020/1/30 16:02:58|过剩是价格被人为拔高的结果
-HL|薛兆丰经济学讲义 |薛兆丰|2020/1/30 16:04:46|不难看出，价格管制越严重，价值耗散就越大，人们设法绕过政府管制的积极性也越大；而政府围堵的力度越大，人们采用的对策就越迂回，其中白白浪费掉的竞争成本也越大。从这个角度看，价格管制之下，形形色色的违法活动以及它们出场的次序，也都是可以理解的。
-HL|薛兆丰经济学讲义 |薛兆丰|2020/1/30 16:05:49|人们常有这样的鸵鸟心态，在讨论价格的时候，会说那些正在触动神经的商品非常特殊，不是商品，所以价格规律不起作用。谈水费的时候，说水不是商品；谈学费的时候，教育不是商品；谈药费的时候，健康不是商品；谈旅费的时候，回家过年不是商品。然而，抱着这样的心态，只能让人脱离现实，而无法正视问题和寻求对策。毕竟经济规律是不以人的意志为转移的
-HL|薛兆丰经济学讲义 |薛兆丰|2020/1/30 16:06:32|反对的第二个理由是，回家过年是刚需。意思是不管价格多高，人们还是要回家过年，因此提价只会让铁路系统多赚钱，而不能降低人们回家过年的愿望。
-HL|薛兆丰经济学讲义 |薛兆丰|2020/1/30 16:17:24|他们说：帮穷人的最好办法，就是以金钱的方式给穷人补贴，同时让市场发挥它自身应有的功能，而不是直接去干预商品的价格。
-HL|中国为什么有前途：对外经济关系的战略潜能（第3版） |翟东升|2020/3/29 22:40:57|世界历史告诉我们，贸易战仅仅是逆全球化时代的一种常见症状而已，此外往往还有思潮极化、强人政治乃至大国战争等并发症。
-HL|中国为什么有前途：对外经济关系的战略潜能（第3版） |翟东升|2020/3/29 23:07:42|税。狭义的铸币税是指中央国家向外围投放的基础货币换取了大量的真实价值，而印制或发行这些基础货币的成本近乎为零，而且理论上这些货币永远不必收回来。广义的铸币税是指，外围国家将巨量资金储存到美国，每年只拿很少的利息，考虑到美元相对于基本商品的持续贬值，这些资金事实上获得的利息为负，而与此同时，中央国家对外进行投资，获得很高的收益率。两者相减，所余差额便是广义铸币税。
-HL|中国为什么有前途：对外经济关系的战略潜能（第3版） |翟东升|2020/3/30 22:38:33|500年间，先后有多个信奉并充分适应市场制度的国家与地区兴起，占据世界市场的中心，按时间顺序分别是：伊比利亚半岛国家（葡萄牙和西班牙）、荷兰、英国、美国，它们分别各领风骚近百年。24不变之处在于这些国家对市场的控制和利用，变化之处在于中央国家的规模一个比一个大。从最初葡萄牙、荷兰这种百万人口级的袖珍强国，到18、19世纪千万人口级的英国，再到今天数亿人口的美国以及即将登场的印度与中国这样的十亿人口级的大国。
-HL|中国为什么有前途：对外经济关系的战略潜能（第3版） |翟东升|2020/3/30 22:53:52|西班牙的权势在很大程度上恰恰受损于它自己的财富。西班牙美洲帝国盛产的黄金白银源源不断地运往西班牙本土，这些作为货币的贵金属引起了持续的通货膨胀，并使西班牙本土手工工业的发展受到严重而持续的抑制，帝国衰落的根源就在于此。
-HL|中国为什么有前途：对外经济关系的战略潜能（第3版） |翟东升|2020/3/30 22:55:05|全球市场体系尽管在短期内有上文所说的“劫贫济富”的特点，从长期来看却又有“损有余而补不足”的特点。
-HL|中国为什么有前途：对外经济关系的战略潜能（第3版） |翟东升|2020/3/30 22:56:58|中国古代历史上的“家天下”帝国体制，存在非常严重的不公和残酷的一面，对民众的物质剥削和精神奴役都非常严重，也的确周期性地陷入混乱和动荡，但是这种权力结构本身经历了2000多年的世事变迁和王朝更替而非常稳定。
-NT|中国为什么有前途：对外经济关系的战略潜能（第3版） |翟东升|2020/3/30 22:57:52|矛盾 诳语
-HL|中国为什么有前途：对外经济关系的战略潜能（第3版） |翟东升|2020/3/30 22:59:39|进入新世纪，十来个中东欧国家依靠同西欧的“一体化”而好不容易打开了发达国家俱乐部的一个后门，但是全球金融危机的爆发却令多个中东欧国家功败垂成，恰如10年前的亚洲金融危机让一批东亚国家“一夜打回原形”一般。
-HL|中国为什么有前途：对外经济关系的战略潜能（第3版） |翟东升|2020/3/31 22:35:48|由于美元是国际货币，所以对美元而言重要的是全球市场而不是美国本土市场，记住这一点非常重要。
-HL|中国为什么有前途：对外经济关系的战略潜能（第3版） |翟东升|2020/3/31 22:36:15|全球市场的开放性是美元地位的根本支柱之一。
-NT|中国为什么有前途：对外经济关系的战略潜能（第3版） |翟东升|2020/3/31 22:36:38|为什么美国要搞保护主义
-HL|中国为什么有前途：对外经济关系的战略潜能（第3版） |翟东升|2020/3/31 22:37:38|我们可以概括出美国建立和维持美元霸权，从而居于世界市场体系中央地位的若干基本条件如下：第一，美国在人才、技术、专利以及研发能力等方面维持优势；第二，对战略性地区（东亚和中东）和战略性资产（能源）的控制力；第三，最初对黄金储备的垄断占有，以及先挂钩后脱钩的把戏；第四，有能力保持全球市场（商品、服务和贸易）的开放性，从而确保美元在全球市场的购买力；第五，发展出广度和深度最佳的金融市场来吸纳全球资金。
-HL|中国为什么有前途：对外经济关系的战略潜能（第3版） |翟东升|2020/3/31 22:38:36|要想从外围国家征收美元铸币税，就需要把美元大量而持久地输出到外围国家手中。让外围国家手里长期持有美元，不外乎两种途径：36一是美国政府和企业通过对外投资将美元输入外围国家，二是美国用美元购买国外厂商的产品和服务。无论哪种途径，都会导致美国的产业外移和本土的去工业化。
-HL|中国为什么有前途：对外经济关系的战略潜能（第3版） |翟东升|2020/3/31 22:39:13|对外资本输出带来霸权国技术垄断地位的瓦解和本土产业优势的消失，这一点在当年英国霸权的衰落过程中已经体现得淋漓尽致。
-HL|中国为什么有前途：对外经济关系的战略潜能（第3版） |翟东升|2020/3/31 22:50:39|长期逆差最终也一样导致美国本土的产业外移和去工业化。
-HL|中国为什么有前途：对外经济关系的战略潜能（第3版） |翟东升|2020/3/31 22:54:13|在开放经济环境中，当一个经济体可以稳定、长期、巨额地不劳而获时，这个经济体中很难再容纳其他各种普通产业的生存——这些产业需要持续的资本投入和大量的劳动力，但所提供的工资水平却没有太大的吸引力，因为这种额外收益将各种生产要素（资金除外）价格的水位抬得太高，以至于除了暴利行业40和不可外包的部门（non-tradable sector）之外，其他面对外围国家竞争的各种产业迟早会在严酷的竞争中销声匿迹。
-NT|中国为什么有前途：对外经济关系的战略潜能（第3版） |翟东升|2020/3/31 22:54:19|香港
-HL|中国为什么有前途：对外经济关系的战略潜能（第3版） |翟东升|2020/3/31 22:56:58|一旦离开了这种超额收入，可能会引发经济、社会乃至政治的崩溃。中央地位带来的泡沫性利益如同毒品，短期可以带来兴奋和力量，长期则消解其实力，并使之上瘾。
-HL|中国为什么有前途：对外经济关系的战略潜能（第3版） |翟东升|2020/3/31 23:01:54|大量自然资源的发现往往是一种“诅咒”而不是福音。
-HL|中国为什么有前途：对外经济关系的战略潜能（第3版） |翟东升|2020/3/31 23:02:16|经济学家们的解释是资源采掘业存在“产业挤出效应”，即当该种资源价格高涨的时候，大量的资本和人力涌入这个行业，抬高了这个经济体内部各类要素的价格，
-HL|中国为什么有前途：对外经济关系的战略潜能（第3版） |翟东升|2020/3/31 23:02:27|而围绕开采权的争夺往往导致贿赂盛行，腐败滋生，一国治理水准持续下降；域外大国为了廉价地获得资源供给，往往不择手段地干涉和操纵弱小国家的内政，甚至不惜挑起战争，
-HL|中国为什么有前途：对外经济关系的战略潜能（第3版） |翟东升|2020/3/31 23:03:15|了“资源诅咒”的厄运：宏观经济风险加大，政治混乱，冲突四起。
-HL|中国为什么有前途：对外经济关系的战略潜能（第3版） |翟东升|2020/3/31 23:04:37|许多国家都试图直接发展自己的民族高端工业，如钢铁、化工、造船、汽车、飞机、军事工业。这种政策路径便是进口替代式的发展，也受到了20世纪六七十年代流行的左翼政治经济学理论的推崇和鼓励。
-HL|中国为什么有前途：对外经济关系的战略潜能（第3版） |翟东升|2020/3/31 23:04:46|而放弃自己的比较优势（劳动力价格），转而同西方国家在对方擅长的领域中竞争，以己之短，搏人之长，必然要赔钱。
-HL|中国为什么有前途：对外经济关系的战略潜能（第3版） |翟东升|2020/3/31 23:05:02|一国经济“套牢”在赔钱的产业之中会产生双重伤害：一是经济体不断地失血；二是丧失在正确的领域挣钱的机会，蹉跎岁月。
-HL|中国为什么有前途：对外经济关系的战略潜能（第3版） |翟东升|2020/3/31 23:13:13|这种挤出机制是经济学者用来解释所谓“资源诅咒”的几种主要逻辑之一。
-HL|中国为什么有前途：对外经济关系的战略潜能（第3版） |翟东升|2020/3/31 23:17:31|过去40年间，中国采取了“三外路线”作为对外经济政策的核心：鼓励外贸、吸引外资、控制外汇。
-HL|中国为什么有前途：对外经济关系的战略潜能（第3版） |翟东升|2020/3/31 23:19:17|也正是由于这个不等价交换逻辑，周边国家争着来北京朝贡，2而天朝皇帝则根据各地方政权的亲疏和德行表现来决定各方朝贡的规模、频率以及路线。
-HL|中国为什么有前途：对外经济关系的战略潜能（第3版） |翟东升|2020/3/31 23:19:24|朝贡按照“厚往薄来”的原则实施，
-HL|中国为什么有前途：对外经济关系的战略潜能（第3版） |翟东升|2020/3/31 23:23:55|而如果看到津巴布韦3这样的国家发展案例，则更能深刻体会到：及时而坚决的土地改革和社会改造对于一个民族的现代化发展前景是多么重要。
-NT|中国为什么有前途：对外经济关系的战略潜能（第3版） |翟东升|2020/3/31 23:24:34|没有可比性 何以见得
-HL|中国为什么有前途：对外经济关系的战略潜能（第3版） |翟东升|2020/4/1 19:28:26|大部分投资在美国国债或者准国债中，名义收益率为3%，而考虑到2001年以来美元的持续下跌，用一揽子非美元货币来标示的外汇投资收益大概接近于0。5
-HL|中国为什么有前途：对外经济关系的战略潜能（第3版） |翟东升|2020/4/1 19:41:07|现代工业史上没有任何一个国家的钢铁年产量达到过1亿吨，而今天中国的钢铁年产量已经很轻松地超过了7亿吨，假如不是政府出台各种政策措施压缩产能，这个数字将进一步放大。在如此巨大的工业产能和出口能力面前，目前由美国主导的世界市场体系已经觉得撑不住了。“中国生产，美国消费，中国放贷，美国借债”的循环模式已经不可持续，美国奥巴马政府明确宣布将寻求对全球经济实施“再平衡”。
-HL|中国为什么有前途：对外经济关系的战略潜能（第3版） |翟东升|2020/4/1 21:37:09|本币汇率先是大幅持续贬值，从20世纪80年代初的2.5元人民币兑1美元贬为1994年起的8.27元兑1美元，此后在这个价位上锚住美元长达11年之久，这种汇率安排对于中国的出口非常有帮助。
-HL|中国为什么有前途：对外经济关系的战略潜能（第3版） |翟东升|2020/4/1 21:38:30|为了维持人民币兑美元的汇率稳定，央行扮演了市场最后买家的角色，将所有8.26元以下的美元（或者等价的其他外汇）买到自己手中，从而形成我们巨大的官方外汇储备。
-HL|中国为什么有前途：对外经济关系的战略潜能（第3版） |翟东升|2020/4/1 21:41:08|从2005年7月21日起，人民币不再锚住美元，开启了漫长而渐进的升值过程。到2014年12月，人民币兑美元的名义汇率累计升值了35%左右。这样的升值，一定程度上减缓了国内生产要素价格被低估的程度，有利于国内民生的改善，也有利于产业的升级（详见第4章）。
-HL|中国为什么有前途：对外经济关系的战略潜能（第3版） |翟东升|2020/4/1 21:46:15|新中国成立后头30年的国家政治建设，尽管代价非常巨大，甚至有些方面走过了头，但是毕竟完成了一个对后来的发展意义重大的历史任务，那就是国家权力彻底地渗入、动员和改造了中国社会，消灭了原本广泛存在的自治、自为、自我循环的那种自然状态，也消灭了个人的匿名状态，每个人都生活在某个由国家界定并控制的单位之中。
-HL|中国为什么有前途：对外经济关系的战略潜能（第3版） |翟东升|2020/4/1 21:52:13|对新自由主义经济学的理论及其政策实践开始出现较为系统的反思，这一方面与领导层代际更替不无关系，另一方面也是由于一系列政策的负面代价开始逐步显现出来。
-NT|中国为什么有前途：对外经济关系的战略潜能（第3版） |翟东升|2020/4/1 21:52:21|马屁
-HL|中国为什么有前途：对外经济关系的战略潜能（第3版） |翟东升|2020/4/1 21:56:30|三外路线”之下，中国对外部资本、技术和市场的依赖越来越严重，所以中国外交主要表现为韬光养晦；随着“三外路线”逐步被修正，中国外交开始恢复本来的风骨。
-NT|中国为什么有前途：对外经济关系的战略潜能（第3版） |翟东升|2020/4/1 21:56:56|有待验证 民族主义严重
-HL|中国为什么有前途：对外经济关系的战略潜能（第3版） |翟东升|2020/4/1 21:58:08|在中国与西方国家的相互依赖关系中，中国对西方的依赖程度在逐步减轻，但是西方国家对中国的依赖却越来越明显。此消彼长，中国的外交风格悄然发生了变化——越来越自信，越来越硬气。
-HL|中国为什么有前途：对外经济关系的战略潜能（第3版） |翟东升|2020/4/1 22:24:22|根据某些学者的计量和回归分析，可以发现2001年之前的中国外贸同汇率变动之间存在正相关关系，汇率贬值1%将带来1.465%的出口增长。
-HL|中国为什么有前途：对外经济关系的战略潜能（第3版） |翟东升|2020/4/1 22:25:28|将表3-3数据做回归分析可以看出，当年出口退税额每增长1%，可以导致下一年度出口额增加0.92%，说明出口量的增长对于出口退税政策的变化非常敏感。
-HL|中国为什么有前途：对外经济关系的战略潜能（第3版） |翟东升|2020/4/1 22:26:59|20世纪80年代的时候，由于日元多年大幅升值的累积性后果，一部分低利润率的、劳动密集型的制造装配业在日本国内已经生存不下去，必须向外部转移。承接这部分产业转移的，是东亚“四小龙”，也就是传统儒家文化圈中的四个小经济体：韩国、新加坡、中国台湾和中国香港。
-HL|中国为什么有前途：对外经济关系的战略潜能（第3版） |翟东升|2020/4/1 22:27:05|到20世纪80年代中期就形成了美国—日本—“四小龙”之间的三角贸易关系。
-HL|中国为什么有前途：对外经济关系的战略潜能（第3版） |翟东升|2020/4/1 22:27:57|中国也挤入了原本由美日和“四小龙”构成的制造业产业链，商品由日本的工程师设计并制造样品，在韩国和中国台湾制造核心部件，然后在中国大陆生产组装，最后销往美国。
-HL|中国为什么有前途：对外经济关系的战略潜能（第3版） |翟东升|2020/4/1 22:30:06|从地缘角度来看，日本构思的雁行模式将自己设定为亚洲的头雁，从事工业品的设计和研发工作；“四小龙”（韩国、中国台湾、新加坡和中国香港）紧跟它自己的方向，从事配件制造工作；“四小虎”（马来西亚、泰国、菲律宾、印度尼西亚）紧随其后；而中国在日本人的构想中是专为整个产业链提供基础原材料和最终产品销售市场的。
-HL|中国为什么有前途：对外经济关系的战略潜能（第3版） |翟东升|2020/4/1 22:31:12|按照某些学者的说法，正是由于东南亚新兴经济体在与中国制造业PK时落败，才有了1997、1998年亚洲金融危机的基本面：它们的实体经济和出口状况恶化，但是虚拟经济过度繁荣，两者之间的背离导致了货币和金融泡沫的产生，从而给外部投机资本以可乘之机。
-HL|中国为什么有前途：对外经济关系的战略潜能（第3版） |翟东升|2020/4/1 22:32:58|17用国内消费取代外需和投资来拉动经济成长的中国经济转型，既是应对全球金融危机和经济衰退的必要举措，也是建设国内和谐社会和可持续发展的内在要求。
-HL|中国为什么有前途：对外经济关系的战略潜能（第3版） |翟东升|2020/4/1 22:53:20|中国为什么要吸引外资？对此问题理论界有多种回答，最主要的有资本缺口论、技术缺口论和制度缺口论。
-HL|中国为什么有前途：对外经济关系的战略潜能（第3版） |翟东升|2020/4/1 22:55:37|有代表性的是2002年黄亚生教授提出的解释，他认为中国对民营资本的歧视，对企业的体制性主从次序，将中国大量的经济资源配置给低效率的国有企业，再加上严重的国内市场分割限制了国内企业的增长和投资选择。
-HL|中国为什么有前途：对外经济关系的战略潜能（第3版） |翟东升|2020/4/1 22:56:02|中国吸引巨额外资并非政策成就，而是中国经济体制缺陷的症状表现。
-HL|中国为什么有前途：对外经济关系的战略潜能（第3版） |翟东升|2020/4/1 23:00:25|近年来，东部、中部、西部的外资分布大约都是20∶2∶1的比例。尽管中央出台了若干政策鼓励外资前往中西部投资，这一比例却没有明显变动。东部前5名的省份是西部后5名省份实际利用外资的250多倍7。
-HL|中国为什么有前途：对外经济关系的战略潜能（第3版） |翟东升|2020/4/2 8:01:05|假如我们把眼界稍微放宽一些，那么不难发现外资的技术溢出路径是非常多样化的。学界如今公认的溢出路径有四种：一是竞争效应，二是示范模仿效应，三是联系效应，四是培训效应或者说人才流动路径。14这四种效应的合力形成了某些统计研究中比较积极的研究结论：所有中国向外资开放的行业，中国的本土企业也开始强盛起来。
-HL|中国为什么有前途：对外经济关系的战略潜能（第3版） |翟东升|2020/4/2 8:05:11|这两种表面上截然相反的态度具有类似的本质，那就是它们都带有非理性的思维特征，没有抓住问题的本质和关键，而且最根本的问题在于，他们都对中国企业和中国人的特质与潜能缺乏最起码的信心。
-HL|中国为什么有前途：对外经济关系的战略潜能（第3版） |翟东升|2020/4/2 8:12:17|并且通过诉诸“极端场景”的设问，将问题引向片面。
-HL|中国为什么有前途：对外经济关系的战略潜能（第3版） |翟东升|2020/4/2 8:12:39|真正的产业安全问题，其实不是市场上行为者的国籍，而是市场的结构，也就是说是否存在垄断行为，以及借助何种手段来垄断，造成了利益分配结果有利于谁、不利于谁。
-HL|中国为什么有前途：对外经济关系的战略潜能（第3版） |翟东升|2020/4/2 8:15:48|相反，当一家或者少数几家企业利用自己的某种资源控制了市场上的供给或需求时，即便它们是国有企业，比如电信服务业和早期的汽车制造业，它也会提供质次价高的商品与服务，最终损害消费者利益。
-HL|中国为什么有前途：对外经济关系的战略潜能（第3版） |翟东升|2020/4/2 8:16:34|换言之，竞争带来产业安全和进步，而垄断则带来福利损失和技术停滞，从而损害国家经济
-HL|中国为什么有前途：对外经济关系的战略潜能（第3版） |翟东升|2020/4/2 22:26:51|回顾过去30年间逐步开放的各种产业，往往是国有企业输给外资企业，而外资企业输给民营企业。
-HL|中国为什么有前途：对外经济关系的战略潜能（第3版） |翟东升|2020/4/2 22:46:27|对于“国际游资”所带来的风险，一定要记住风险的另一个名字就是利润和价值；
-HL|中国为什么有前途：对外经济关系的战略潜能（第3版） |翟东升|2020/4/2 22:47:41|假如我们的政策不合理，让富人觉得不安全，那么就会驱使他们加速流向海外，成为别国公民。
-HL|中国为什么有前途：对外经济关系的战略潜能（第3版） |翟东升|2020/4/2 22:53:31|指望通过合资便能带来先进技术，怀有这种想法的人从一开始就缺乏对市场竞争和知识产权的基本常识。
-HL|中国为什么有前途：对外经济关系的战略潜能（第3版） |翟东升|2020/4/3 7:59:35|在首次招标中，铁道部即引入“战略买家”策略，将过于自信且报价过高的西门子公司“除名”，造成该公司随即股价暴跌，总裁和竞标团队全体引咎辞职。其后西门子公司在大幅降价后重新参与300公里动车组的竞标，仅该项目就节省了大约90亿元人民币的采购资金。
-HL|中国为什么有前途：对外经济关系的战略潜能（第3版） |翟东升|2020/4/3 18:09:53|只有强有力的政治才能创造强有力的货币。
-NT|中国为什么有前途：对外经济关系的战略潜能（第3版） |翟东升|2020/4/3 18:10:54|经济 综合国力
-HL|中国为什么有前途：对外经济关系的战略潜能（第3版） |翟东升|2020/4/3 18:14:16|两个官方汇率的并存形成了制度性的混乱，因而从1985年起取消贸易外汇内部结算价，重新统一官方汇率，定为1美元兑2.8元人民币。
-HL|中国为什么有前途：对外经济关系的战略潜能（第3版） |翟东升|2020/4/3 18:23:35|一是汇率调控的方式，实行“以市场供求为基础、参考一揽子货币进行调节、有管理的浮动汇率制度”。
-HL|中国为什么有前途：对外经济关系的战略潜能（第3版） |翟东升|2020/4/3 19:17:14|美国金融学学者尼尔·弗格森（Niall Ferguson）从1700～2000年的世界经济金融史中梳理了货币与权力的关系，发现政治斗争决定了金融和经济，而不是通常所认为的经济发展导致了金融和政治制度变革。金融制度安排首先是为战争服务的，早期中央银行的诞生就是明证；即使是在没有战争的和平时期，金融也是受制于政治需要的。
-NT|中国为什么有前途：对外经济关系的战略潜能（第3版） |翟东升|2020/4/3 19:17:30|偏颇之言
-HL|中国为什么有前途：对外经济关系的战略潜能（第3版） |翟东升|2020/4/12 16:53:24|独立货币政策、资本自由流动与固定汇率这三个政策目标是不可能同时成立的，
-HL|中国为什么有前途：对外经济关系的战略潜能（第3版） |翟东升|2020/4/12 17:04:23|在1981～1993年中国实行了很长时间的双轨汇率制度。
-HL|中国为什么有前途：对外经济关系的战略潜能（第3版） |翟东升|2020/4/12 17:07:13|由于汇率低估且固定，所以中国国内积累了大量劳动密集型的组装工业，它们构成中国对外出口的主力。这种工业给中国劳动力的价格非常低，低到了几乎是维持劳动力简单再生产的成本价，所以严重限制了国内消费能力的同步提升。而国内内需的严重不足，又限制了中国政府的政策调整空间，不得不将中国经济增长更多地寄托在外资和出口上。所以外向型经济部门的诉求（保汇率而舍货币政策的独立性）长期占上风。
-HL|中国为什么有前途：对外经济关系的战略潜能（第3版） |翟东升|2020/4/12 17:07:51|低估的固定汇率不利于产业升级，也不利于发展出一个可持续的、对外较少依赖的经济增长模式。它扭曲了市场价格信号，压低了中国劳动力（以美元计价）的报酬，抬高了进口商品的价格，从而导致国内消费者的福利损失，对非贸易部门的利益也存在潜在的剥夺。
-HL|中国为什么有前途：对外经济关系的战略潜能（第3版） |翟东升|2020/4/12 17:08:23|2005年7月之后，人民币汇率开始稳步升值，到了2008年中期人民币兑美元已经从8.26升值为6.85左右，3年不到升值了20%。这样一种缓慢、稳定而长期的升值方式存在一个漏洞，那就是形成了一种无风险套利的机会，使外部游资可以投机性进入。
-HL|中国为什么有前途：对外经济关系的战略潜能（第3版） |翟东升|2020/4/12 21:11:08|存在经济泡沫化风险，尤其是当政府为了维持本国出口工业的竞争力，不断买入外币以维持本币较低估值时，货币政策失效，经济陷入流动性陷阱，股价和房价等资产泡沫飞涨。一种货币从低估的固定汇率向浮动汇率转变的过程中，出现无风险套利的机会，必然引来巨量游资。这个过程中资产泡沫将吹得非常大，而之后往往是漫长的低迷时期。
-HL|中国为什么有前途：对外经济关系的战略潜能（第3版） |翟东升|2020/4/12 21:14:55|日元国际化的失败首先是由于日本政府顽固地坚持出口导向型经济发展模式，并为了维持日本的出口竞争能力而持续干预货币市场。日本人不愿意接受贸易逆差，这导致日本付出巨大的宏观经济代价来满足自己对顺差的偏好。日元国际化意味着日本政府需要想办法让国外的企业、个人和政府手中持有日元，但是他们又不愿意“吃亏”，不愿意用大规模购买他国商品和服务的方式来输出日元。同时，他们的对外投资额一时也比较有限，所以日本政府通过对外签订（低息）日元贷款协议来推动日元国际化。中国获得的大量低息日元贷款正是在这个背景下出现的。问题在于，当日元贷出去之后，表面上看日元国际化程度似乎有明显的增长，但是日元的持续升值让贷款国损失很大，因为他们还款时需要筹集远比当初多得多的美元来还本付息。协商不成、沟通未果的结果反复发生后，亚洲各国政府倾向于将日元债务尽快还清并从此不再碰它，这导致了日元国际化的成果普遍短命，在绕了一圈之后发现自己回到了原点。
-HL|中国为什么有前途：对外经济关系的战略潜能（第3版） |翟东升|2020/4/12 21:15:27|日本在20世纪80年代给中国和亚洲各国不少低息甚至无息的日元贷款，似乎是在为早年的历史问题赎罪，但是实际上是利用信息不对称赚取亚洲各国的便宜。他们自己很清楚日元不久将在外部压力下大幅升值，于是赶在升值前向亚洲各国尽可能多地发放日元贷款，大幅增加手中的对外日元债权，将来在日元升值后回收，以此将升值过程演变为一个既牟利益又捞名声（援助周边穷国）的过程。
-HL|中国为什么有前途：对外经济关系的战略潜能（第3版） |翟东升|2020/4/12 21:16:18|日元的缺乏稳定性和强势特征也是它的问题所在。整体上看，日本政府和日元缺乏敢于担当的决心和意志。美国人一施压便大幅升值，市场一波动便掉头贬值，缺乏作为大国的自信心、自主性和稳定性。
-HL|中国为什么有前途：对外经济关系的战略潜能（第3版） |翟东升|2020/4/12 21:24:12|当下非经济因素颠倒了由内到外的改革顺序：先着手资本项目放开和人民币国际化，而利率、汇率市场化，银行内部治理改革，却停步不前，这是非常危险的。
-HL|中国为什么有前途：对外经济关系的战略潜能（第3版） |翟东升|2020/4/12 21:25:06|央行官员郭建伟进一步补充，与其讨论改革和开放的先后关系，不如研究资本项目具体子项的轻重缓急次序问题，对于短期投机性资本，应慎重、有条件地放开，将风险降至最低。
-HL|中国为什么有前途：对外经济关系的战略潜能（第3版） |翟东升|2020/4/12 21:40:24|“强制结售汇制度”“银行外汇周转头寸限制”以及事实上的“钉住美元汇率政策”构成的三位一体的制度安排，仿佛是一只无形的大手，把外汇先是从企业挤到商业银行，再从商业银行挤到银行间外汇市场，再从外汇市场挤到外管局的账户上。今天巨大的官方外汇储备由此而来。一个很少被人提起的事实是，这么巨大的外汇储备，其实基本上是替外资保管的金银细软。当然，将来怎么还，还多少，中国人说了算。
-HL|中国为什么有前途：对外经济关系的战略潜能（第3版） |翟东升|2020/4/12 21:44:15|1994年1月1日起实施的外汇体制改革，掀开了第二个时期的序幕，外汇与汇率制度转向市场主导，并用强制结售汇制度取代外汇留存和上缴制度，建立了统一的银行间外汇市场。所谓强制结汇是指不允许企业保留外汇，他们必须将经营中产生的外汇收入按照当日汇率卖给外汇指定银行，获得人民币；当企业需要外汇时，必须凭有效凭证和商业单据到指定银行购买。而银行在收购外汇之后，只能持有周转限额以内的外汇，其余必须在银行间外汇市场上出售，这便是所谓的银行外汇头寸限制。
-HL|中国为什么有前途：对外经济关系的战略潜能（第3版） |翟东升|2020/4/12 21:47:46|众所周知，中国早已成为世界上外汇储备最多的国家。当然，这里的外汇储备特指官方外汇储备，而不包括民间和其他政府机构。假如算上民间与其他政府机构的话，那么日本所持有的外汇总量超过5万亿美元，远多于中国的3万亿美元。
-HL|中国为什么有前途：对外经济关系的战略潜能（第3版） |翟东升|2020/4/12 21:48:48|20世纪90年代之后，国内采取了严厉的紧缩措施，严格限制进口，并以人民币汇率大幅贬值来拉动出口，再加上1992年之后大量外资涌入中国，通过强制结售汇制度收集其外汇，到1997年年底储备急剧增长到1400亿美元。
-HL|中国为什么有前途：对外经济关系的战略潜能（第3版） |翟东升|2020/4/12 21:50:37|自1994年实施至今的“强制结汇”制度，从本质上讲是苏联式的“余粮收集制”在外汇管理上的翻版，它要求民间绝大部分外汇和政府其他外汇资产先集中出售给指定银行。而银行又面临外汇周转头寸限制，每家银行只能在手中保持很有限的外汇头寸，一旦收购到的外汇多于规定的限额，它们必须在银行间外汇市场上出售。假如大家都在抛售外币，那么人民币汇率就应该上涨，但是，为了避免人民币升值，中央银行必须将市场上多余的外汇全部买到自己手中，转化为官方外汇储备。这样的制度组合，在一个人民币相对低估（因而存在升值预期）和各级政府想方设法吸引外资的时代背景下，造就了我们惊人的外汇储备。
-HL|中国为什么有前途：对外经济关系的战略潜能（第3版） |翟东升|2020/4/12 21:52:20|这三位一体的制度安排，仿佛是一只无形的大手在挤香肠，把肉糜（外汇）先是从企业挤到商业银行，再从商业银行挤到银行间外汇市场，再从外汇市场挤到外管局的账户上。
-HL|中国为什么有前途：对外经济关系的战略潜能（第3版） |翟东升|2020/4/12 21:55:16|难道三四十年来13亿中国人流血流汗起早贪黑全都白干了？我们的钱哪里去了？这个问题比较复杂。首先，我们本来就没有攒下多少钱，因为出口大部分是替人家打工，大进大出，中国人自己只拿一个零头。有很多时候，如果考虑到廉价补贴给外资的土地、基建和环境成本，中国人拿到的是负数，钢铁出口工业便是一例。其次，本土出口企业所“赚”到的那部分外汇，用来在海外收购资源、股权和消费品了，这部分加起来也不是小数。最后，中国作为一个急速工业化过程中的国家，从体系中央国家采购技术和设备等资本品的耗费是非常可观的。
-HL|中国为什么有前途：对外经济关系的战略潜能（第3版） |翟东升|2020/4/12 22:38:03|中国外储的超额积累是一种饥渴症、财富幻觉和政策惯性的结果。
-HL|中国为什么有前途：对外经济关系的战略潜能（第3版） |翟东升|2020/4/12 22:38:44|在这种背景下，产生了普遍的财富幻觉，将别人对我们的债务（支付承诺）当作财富本身。
-HL|中国为什么有前途：对外经济关系的战略潜能（第3版） |翟东升|2020/4/12 22:39:43|根据“金融中介”理论，由于中国金融体系效率较低因而无法将国内储蓄转化为有效投资，经过这个迂回的过程，事实上引入的是国外效率较高的金融体系，为中国提供了储蓄转化为投资的“金融中介”功能。7因此，只要我国国内金融体系与国际金融体系存在较大的效率差距，我国就只能通过这种“体外”资本循环方式支持国内经济增长。
-HL|中国为什么有前途：对外经济关系的战略潜能（第3版） |翟东升|2020/4/12 22:44:06|2007年中国成立了首家主权基金中国投资公司（CIC），从外汇储备中“买”出2000亿美元资本金用以投资国际资本市场。外管局（SAFE）自己也拿出少量资产试水股权市场，于是被部分西方学者称为中国的另一个主权基金。中投公司生不逢时，恰巧碰上了次贷危机和后来的全球金融危机，出师不利，客观上打击了国内对外汇储备投资转型的积极性和信心（
-HL|中国为什么有前途：对外经济关系的战略潜能（第3版） |翟东升|2020/4/12 22:45:16|中国将向日本学习，变“藏汇于国”为“藏汇于民”。通过这些措施标本兼治，相信未来中国的外汇储备将可以回落到相对合理的水平。
-HL|中国为什么有前途：对外经济关系的战略潜能（第3版） |翟东升|2020/4/12 22:48:53|这样两个大国间复杂而微妙的关系之所以越来越趋于成熟和稳定，主要是因为存在两大“恐怖平衡”，或者说两种“相互确保摧毁”在同时发生作用：一是以大规模杀伤性武器及其运载手段为基础的核恐怖平衡，二是以上述经济连体关系形成的“金融恐怖平衡”。
-HL|中国为什么有前途：对外经济关系的战略潜能（第3版） |翟东升|2020/4/12 22:52:12|一旦东亚发生一定程度的动荡和冲突，那么资本将会出现一个严重的外逃过程，也就是我们此前常见的那种资本出于安全考虑从体系外围急速回流到体系中央的场景，这在客观上将非常有利于体系中央国家缓解其货币信用链条上的燃眉之急。由于美国目前仍然主导着东亚地区的和平与安全格局，那么潜在地就出现了一个巨大的套利机会：挑起某个地区性的冲突并放手升级之，结果将是东亚资本的急速外逃，美国的融资问题一夜间获得解决，尽管这是一种杀鸡取卵的不可持续的解决方法。对于中国和东亚国家而言，我们有必要提前考虑到这种潜在套利机会给这个地区带来的重大战略风险。
-HL|中国为什么有前途：对外经济关系的战略潜能（第3版） |翟东升|2020/4/13 18:01:42|政出多门的管理体制形成了错综复杂的管理局面和混乱拖沓的管理效果。其根源在于这样一个内在逻辑：只有不断地扩大本机构的权力，才能增加自己手中可支配的资源，从而巩固和提升本部门本系统在体制内的地位。
-HL|中国为什么有前途：对外经济关系的战略潜能（第3版） |翟东升|2020/4/13 22:02:41|为了绕开贸易壁垒，一部分从事成衣、制鞋等行业的中国企业将产品的最后几个生产环节搬到中国周边小国进行，这样根据原产地规则这些产品便不再是中国制造，不易遭受贸易保护主义之害。
-HL|中国为什么有前途：对外经济关系的战略潜能（第3版） |翟东升|2020/4/13 22:08:30|11之所以出现这样的情况，是因为中国政府在过去相当长时间内给予外资以超国民待遇，在税收减免、批地、基础设施成本、外汇使用等各个方面都优先于国内民营企业，所以国内资本为了获得公平的竞争环境，不惜绕道境外，将自己打扮成外资再回归中国市场。有人估计中国“入世”后所引外资中有两到三成是这种“往返程”投资。近两年外资的超国民待遇逐步取消，这类现象开始逐步减少。
-HL|中国为什么有前途：对外经济关系的战略潜能（第3版） |翟东升|2020/4/13 22:08:46|2009年中国所实际使用的900亿美元外资中，中国香港一地便占了540亿美元。
-HL|中国为什么有前途：对外经济关系的战略潜能（第3版） |翟东升|2020/4/13 22:16:41|系列短片每次20分钟，每周一次，每年播出40周，内容涉及历史、社会、文化、地理各个方面，比如俄罗斯“大列巴”（一种面包）的制作、萨哈林岛风情、俄罗斯传统婚礼、伏特加的酿制等。所有这些短片的共同点是非政治性，都是比较轻松有趣的话题。
-NT|中国为什么有前途：对外经济关系的战略潜能（第3版） |翟东升|2020/4/13 22:17:21|相比 厉害了我的国 意识形态 官话
-HL|中国为什么有前途：对外经济关系的战略潜能（第3版） |翟东升|2020/4/14 7:49:45|最近一次出现在2008年金融危机后，4万亿经济刺激计划导致各行各业全面性的产能过剩，过剩行业不仅包括钢铁、水泥、石化等传统行业，也包括光伏、风电、LED照明等新兴行业，
-HL|中国为什么有前途：对外经济关系的战略潜能（第3版） |翟东升|2020/4/14 24:54:02|国有企业的资金来源是国家政策性银行和国有商业银行提供的廉价资金，这些企业在进行对外直接投资时常常是通过增加财务杠杆而非自有资本进行，导致了非常低的投资效率，甚至导致了大量腐败行为。如2008年9月中钢集团敌意收购澳大利亚中西部公司98.52%的股权，到后来发现中西部公司的矿山根本无法开采和利用，造成国有资产的巨大损失。更有甚者，国有资本对外投资甚至成为腐败分子洗钱的途径：通过伪造对外投资、虚假的进出口交易等，向境外转移资产，从而绕过外汇管制，致使国家财富大量流失。
-HL|中国为什么有前途：对外经济关系的战略潜能（第3版） |翟东升|2020/4/14 13:00:56|民营资本将其收购下来之后，可以选择接受经营，使其技术和品牌同中国国内市场相结合，从而获得可观的业绩增长和资本收益，最典型的是复星集团的海外收购。另一些私募基金则往往选择反手倒卖给国有企业，从而帮助国有企业顺利地“走出去”，而他们自己也实现了颇为可观的短期收益。这种模式可以称为“资本身份套利”。
-HL|中国为什么有前途：对外经济关系的战略潜能（第3版） |翟东升|2020/4/14 13:06:36|或者说把中国人排除在外的再全球化；这是在试图终结中美之间维持了30年的“事实婚姻”，用中国人的说法是“自绝于人民自绝于党”，是不利于“持久和平共同繁荣”的；对于美国而言，也是自挖墙脚之举。
-NT|中国为什么有前途：对外经济关系的战略潜能（第3版） |翟东升|2020/4/14 13:07:10|文革语言666
-HL|中国为什么有前途：对外经济关系的战略潜能（第3版） |翟东升|2020/4/14 13:19:25|中国投资有限责任公司（China Investment Corporation，简称中投）于2007年9月29日在北京成立，是中国自己的主权财富基金。该公司的资金来源于中国的国家外汇储备，成立初期的注册资本金为2000亿美元。
-HL|中国为什么有前途：对外经济关系的战略潜能（第3版） |翟东升|2020/4/14 13:21:09|对黑石投资并没有带来多少直接损失，但是其间接损失却是非常巨大的。2008～2009年的金融危机导致大量资产价格暴跌，市场上流动性稀缺。此时如果中国政府在全球金融市场上出手买入各类股权，必定名利双收，其背后的逻辑是“用流动性换利润”，股神巴菲特的投资逻辑名为“价值投资”，但是他真正的利润来源主要是在市场普遍缺钱的时候“卖出流动性”（sell liquidity）。但是非常遗憾的是，中投公司在这该出手时没有出手，错失良机的原因恰恰在于此前冲动型的投资套牢在黑石等股票上，招致巨大的舆论和政治压力，使得他们不敢再去冒必要的风险。
-HL|中国为什么有前途：对外经济关系的战略潜能（第3版） |翟东升|2020/4/14 13:21:51|由于赏罚不分明，在这样的经营生态中，不可避免地出现了人才的逆向淘汰现象：能干的人认为自己的所得与自己的贡献不相称，所以会选择离开。愿意长时间待下来的人，多数属于业务能力偏弱的。
-HL|中国为什么有前途：对外经济关系的战略潜能（第3版） |翟东升|2020/4/14 13:24:50|相比而言，中东地区的主权财富基金普遍雇用来自华尔街和伦敦金融城的专业高手打理。他们可以从盈利中提取不菲的盈利报酬，所以有着充分的激励机制。那么如何防范可能的圈套和背叛者呢？须知金融市场不同于实体经济，经营者通过老鼠仓把委托方的利润化公为私是非常简单的事情。酋长们的方法简单粗暴却有效：外聘的基金经理们必须把家眷带到中东地区生活。
-HL|中国为什么有前途：对外经济关系的战略潜能（第3版） |翟东升|2020/4/14 17:42:01|一言以蔽之，目前在国际规则制定中的平衡是脆弱的，要想从长远角度有效维护中国主权基金发展的利益和空间，必须占据“人和”的战略高地，也就是说争夺在相关问题上的国际治理机构和舆论塑造过程中的话语权。
-HL|中国为什么有前途：对外经济关系的战略潜能（第3版） |翟东升|2020/4/14 17:48:37|发展中国家很想得到西方的直接投资以推动自己的经济发展，但是又很不愿意承诺向外国投资者提供高度的保护，因为那意味着对自己主权的减损和未来政策选择空间的限制。
-HL|中国为什么有前途：对外经济关系的战略潜能（第3版） |翟东升|2020/4/14 18:10:58|通过“用贸易捆绑股权”“用市场准入权/优先权换股权”“用政府采购换股权”以及“用（中方）股权换（外方）股权”的策略，可以为各种类型的跨国公司提供足够的激励，让它们乐于向中方主权资本敞开大门，但上述“换”法往往与英美自由放任式资本主义所倡导的非歧视性原则、国民待遇原则、普遍制原则等国际经济法原则相矛盾。
-HL|中国为什么有前途：对外经济关系的战略潜能（第3版） |翟东升|2020/4/14 20:56:11|这样一种矛盾源于双方各自的国内体制差异：在英美体制下，是社会尤其是其中的财富精英拥有国家机器；而在中国的国内体制中，很大程度上是国家拥有整个社会，国家机器创造了财富精英。在英美主导世界秩序的时期，非歧视原则、自由贸易原则以及国民待遇原则等以市场压倒国家的法理逻辑成为国际化、全球化的主流趋势；但是当中国崛起参与主导世界事务的时候，从中国的利益和体制特点出发，会要求将“国家高于社会”“国家高于市场”的基本理念带入国际法中间去。具体到这里所说的主权资本输出问题，如果完全接受和遵守英美所倡导的自由贸易和非歧视原则，恐怕就很难用我们对国内市场控制力迫使跨国公司引入中国资本，从而也就很难让中国政府成为全球资本主义体系的最终实际控股人。
-NT|中国为什么有前途：对外经济关系的战略潜能（第3版） |翟东升|2020/4/14 20:56:19|呵呵
-HL|中国为什么有前途：对外经济关系的战略潜能（第3版） |翟东升|2020/4/14 21:26:15|这些对美国而言的“麻烦制造者”有一个重要共同点：它们的财政力量都直接或者间接地源自能源市场。能源价格越高，它们就越有力量为美国及其盟友制造更多麻烦。
-HL|中国为什么有前途：对外经济关系的战略潜能（第3版） |翟东升|2020/4/14 21:29:23|通过托住油价来确保这些国家的政府不倒台，确保这些政府的民粹主义、反美主义政策不改变，符合中国的全局性、阶段性战略需要。
-HL|中国为什么有前途：对外经济关系的战略潜能（第3版） |翟东升|2020/4/14 21:34:41|在我们撬动的所有这些石油财富“改流”中，大约22%即1200亿美元流向俄罗斯、委内瑞拉和伊朗三国。也就是说，我们的370亿美元付出将导致上述三国从世界石油市场（尤其是美、日、欧）多获得约1200亿美元，进而迫使美国及其盟友拿出更多的战略和外交资源来对付这些麻烦制造者。
-HL|中国为什么有前途：对外经济关系的战略潜能（第3版） |翟东升|2020/4/14 21:38:52|能源资源价格越高，它们手中的现金流越充裕，用以采购中国商品的支付能力便越强。石油价格每桶抬高20美元，意味着非洲大陆每年多收入500亿美元，中东多收入1400亿美元。由于这些地区与中国贸易存在越来越明显的垂直分工关系，中国工业品和工程承包行业在这些地区具有很强的竞争力，所以370亿美元的投入大部分可以从对非洲和中东地区的出口增量中补回来。
-HL|中国为什么有前途：对外经济关系的战略潜能（第3版） |翟东升|2020/4/14 22:10:43|这样的增产模式说明了什么问题？显然，靠补贴和换品种来实现的增产是代价不菲而且可持续性比较低的，由此而构造的中国粮食安全是比较脆弱的。
-HL|中国为什么有前途：对外经济关系的战略潜能（第3版） |翟东升|2020/4/14 22:13:53|在2008～2009年人民币对美元汇率维持在6.85一线的时候，中国政府的粮食四类补贴6支出总额达到了950多亿元的规模，那么未来人民币兑美元升值到4∶1甚至3∶1的时候，中国在粮食上的财政负担将是多少？搞农业经济的专业学者们有必要做扎实的计量研究以未雨绸缪，但是这显然将是一个巨大的财政包袱。
-HL|中国为什么有前途：对外经济关系的战略潜能（第3版） |翟东升|2020/4/14 22:16:23|最后，中国水资源的匮乏也将限制我们粮食生产的增长。粮食生产对灌溉水资源的要求非常高，生产一吨谷物需要用水千吨，全球淡水消耗中，城市用水占10%，工业用水占20%，其余70%花在粮食生产上了。所以随着中国水资源平衡的进一步恶化，粮食生产的水资源瓶颈将越来越凸显出来。
-HL|中国为什么有前途：对外经济关系的战略潜能（第3版） |翟东升|2020/4/14 22:44:32|它们对中国援助政策的批评主要集中在以下几点：一是对某些“腐败国家”或者“专制政权”的援助，跟美欧等国唱对台戏；二是在对外援助中不干涉内政、不附加政治条件的原则5不利于改善全球治理水平；三是利用政府间的援助作为中国能源和原材料企业争夺海外资源的辅助手段，对西方企业形成不公平竞争；6四是中国企业在执行援外合同中完全使用中国工人，很少雇用当地人，不利于本地经济的发展。7
-NT|中国为什么有前途：对外经济关系的战略潜能（第3版） |翟东升|2020/4/14 22:45:11|民粹主义
-HL|中国为什么有前途：对外经济关系的战略潜能（第3版） |翟东升|2020/4/15 8:14:44|历史教训告诉我们，把国家间的援助行为同意识形态化的认同和情感捆绑起来，是无益于国家间关系的稳定和良性互动的。
-HL|中国为什么有前途：对外经济关系的战略潜能（第3版） |翟东升|2020/4/15 8:19:45|干涉性道德原则同审慎道德原则之间的区别，那就是：前者试图用神的标准来要求人，后者则用人的标准来要求人。
-HL|中国为什么有前途：对外经济关系的战略潜能（第3版） |翟东升|2020/4/15 13:38:19|中国将不再单单扮演小学生的角色，不再沉默寡言、委曲求全地接受体系现行规则的约束和“社会化”，而是会越来越自信而有力地发声，要求按照自己的观念和利益，调整和修正一部分现有的游戏规则，重新塑造国际体系。
-HL|中国为什么有前途：对外经济关系的战略潜能（第3版） |翟东升|2020/4/15 21:37:05|回想在20世纪70年代，中国内地的民众也被有些人认为是“天性懒惰”的，而短短20年之后中国人的吃苦耐劳在全世界闻名。
-HL|中国为什么有前途：对外经济关系的战略潜能（第3版） |翟东升|2020/4/15 21:44:29|集权的目的是扭转“政出多门，九龙治水”的集体决策弊端。
-HL|中国为什么有前途：对外经济关系的战略潜能（第3版） |翟东升|2020/4/15 21:49:57|最近的这一轮全球化浪潮应当归功于20世纪80年代里根和撒切尔主导的自由主义政治经济理念在全世界的扩散。
-HL|中国为什么有前途：对外经济关系的战略潜能（第3版） |翟东升|2020/4/18 6:51:53|美元发行国带来的巨额铸币税收益可以让美国长期不劳而获，其代价是美元的有效汇率大大高于其维持自身工业竞争力所需的汇率均衡水平。这种收益长期挤压着美国本土生产和出口能力，其机制与所谓的荷兰病39相似。在开放经济环境中，当一个经济体可以稳定、长期、巨额地不劳而获时，这个经济体中很难再容纳其他各种普通产业的生存——这些产业需要持续的资本投入和大量的劳动力，但所提供的工资水平却没有太大的吸引力，因为这种额外收益将各种生产要素（资金除外）价格的水位抬得太高，以至于除了暴利行业40和不可外包的部门（non-tradable sector）之外，其他面对外围国家竞争的各种产业迟早会在严酷的竞争中销声匿迹。
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"1496": {"type": "HL", "position": "2037-2039", "day": "2020\u5e743\u670828\u65e5", "week": "\u661f\u671f\u516d", "meridiem": "\u4e0a\u5348", "time": "8:04:56", "content": "\u4e00\u7cfb\u5217\u7684\u5b9e\u9a8c\u7ed3\u679c\u8bf4\u660e\uff0c\u5b9e\u9a8c\u8005\u671f\u671b\u6548\u5e94\u5bf9\u79d1\u5b66\u7814\u7a76\u7684\u5a01\u80c1\u663e\u7136\u662f\u5b58\u5728\u7684\u3002\u8bad\u7ec3\u6709\u7d20\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u8005\u4f1a\u4f7f\u7528\u66f4\u4e25\u8c28\u7684\u5b9e\u9a8c\u7a0b\u5e8f\u6765\u907f\u514d\u7c7b\u4f3c\u7684\u671f\u671b\u6548\u5e94\uff08\u4f8b\u5982\u4f7f\u7528\u201c\u53cc\u76f2\u201d\u5b9e\u9a8c\uff0c\u5728\u8fd9\u79cd\u5b9e\u9a8c\u4e2d\uff0c\u4e0e\u88ab\u8bd5\u63a5\u89e6\u7684\u5b9e\u9a8c\u4eba\u5458\u5e76\u4e0d\u77e5\u9053\u7814\u7a76\u5047\u8bbe\uff09"}, "1497": {"type": "HL", "position": "2111-2113", "day": "2020\u5e743\u670828\u65e5", "week": "\u661f\u671f\u516d", "meridiem": "\u4e0a\u5348", "time": "8:11:35", "content": 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ego\uff09\uff0c\u800c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u539f\u59cb\u7684\u3001\u517d\u6027\u7684\u6b32\u671b\u5c31\u4f1a\u4ee5\u4e0d\u6587\u660e\u7684\u3001\u91ce\u86ee\u7684\u5f62\u5f0f\u7206\u53d1\u51fa\u6765\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\u6218\u4e89\u3002\u4f46\u662f\uff0c\u4e0d\u7ba1\u600e\u6837\uff0c\u4e5f\u53ea\u6709\u901a\u8fc7\u5347\u534e\uff0c\u6587\u660e\u624d\u80fd\u5b58\u5728\uff08S.Freud\uff0c1936\uff09\u3002"}, "1506": {"type": "HL", "position": "4869-4871", "day": "2020\u5e743\u670828\u65e5", "week": "\u661f\u671f\u516d", "meridiem": "\u4e0b\u5348", "time": "11:51:42", "content": 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